Trump’s AI Chip Tariff Carve-Out: Why Big Tech Just Got a Free Pass—and the Market Loves It

If you’re a trader who still thinks tariffs are just about steel and soybeans, you haven’t been watching the White House’s latest performance art. On February 9, 2026, the Trump administration announced plans to carve out Big Tech, think Amazon, Google, Microsoft, from the next round of chip tariffs, as reported by Reuters. The news hit just as tech stocks were already staging a rebound, with the Dow notching back-to-back records and the Nasdaq shaking off its malaise. The market’s message? Tariffs are for the little guys. The hyperscalers get a hall pass.

Let’s be clear: this isn’t your garden-variety protectionism. The administration’s move is laser-targeted. It’s not about shielding domestic chipmakers or reviving Main Street manufacturing. It’s about making sure Silicon Valley’s AI arms race doesn’t get tripped up by geopolitics. The fact that the carve-out specifically spares companies building AI infrastructure is a tell. The White House is betting that AI is the new oil, and it doesn’t want to risk a supply shock.

The timing isn’t subtle. Tech stocks had been wobbling, with the sector ETF $XLK stuck at $143.37, flatlining like a patient in a hospital drama. But the mere whiff of regulatory favoritism was enough to jolt the market awake. Nvidia and Microsoft led the Dow to another record, as reported by Investors.com. Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance both highlighted the tech rebound, framing it as a prelude to earnings and economic data. But the real story is that the market is pricing in a new era of government-enabled tech dominance.

This isn’t just about tariffs. It’s about the shifting balance of power between the state and the corporate titans who run the digital economy. The Wall Street Journal’s Greg Ip nailed it: soaring profits and stock prices are funneling more of GDP toward companies, their top employees, and shareholders. AI will only intensify this trend. The administration’s carve-out is a green light for tech to keep pulling away from the rest of the market.

Historically, tariffs have been blunt instruments. They hit broad swathes of the economy, spark retaliation, and usually end up hurting the very sectors they’re supposed to help. But this move is different. By sparing Big Tech, the administration is effectively saying: we want to look tough on China, but not at the expense of our AI champions. It’s a shrewd calculation. The market gets the message: the rules don’t apply to the winners.

The context here is everything. Commodities have been on a tear, up +10.49% in January, according to Seeking Alpha. World stocks are up +5.44%. But tech had been lagging, weighed down by regulatory risk, chip supply jitters, and the ever-present threat of higher rates. The carve-out changes the narrative. Now, investors can focus on the fundamentals: AI adoption, cloud growth, and the insatiable demand for compute power.

The carve-out also comes as Alphabet issues 100-year sterling bonds, demand outstripping supply by 5x, per Seeking Alpha. That’s not just a vote of confidence in Alphabet’s balance sheet. It’s a sign that investors are willing to bet on the tech sector’s dominance for generations. The tariff exemption is just more fuel for the fire.

Of course, there are risks. The Fed is still lurking in the background, with Governor Stephen Miran warning that the dollar would need a “really big move” to affect inflation. If the Fed turns hawkish, tech’s rally could stall. And there’s always the risk of political blowback. Main Street hates the idea of special treatment for Silicon Valley. But for now, the market is calling the administration’s bluff.

Strykr Watch

Technical levels for $XLK are clear: support at $142, resistance at $145. The ETF has been stuck in a tight range, but momentum is building. RSI is hovering near 54, not overbought, not oversold. The 50-day moving average sits at $141.80, just below spot. If $XLK can break above $145, the next target is the January high at $147.50. Volume has been picking up on up days, a classic sign of accumulation. Watch for earnings from Microsoft and Nvidia to act as catalysts. If the carve-out narrative holds, expect a rotation back into megacap tech.

The risk is a false breakout. If $XLK fails to clear $145, look for a retest of $142. Below that, the 200-day moving average at $138 is the line in the sand. Options skew is neutral, with implied volatility at the 30th percentile. The market isn’t pricing in fireworks, yet. But that could change if the political winds shift.

The opportunity is to play the range. Longs can add above $145 with a stop at $142. Shorts can fade a failed breakout, targeting $138. For the bold, call spreads into earnings could pay off if the carve-out narrative gains traction.

The real risk is that the administration changes its mind. Tariff policy is notoriously fickle. One tweet, one headline, and the carve-out could vanish. But for now, the path of least resistance is higher.

Strykr Take

Big Tech just got a hall pass, and the market is loving it. The carve-out isn’t just about chips, it’s about who gets to write the rules in the AI era. As long as the administration keeps playing favorites, expect tech to keep pulling away from the pack. The risk is political, not fundamental. For now, the trade is to ride the wave, but keep your stops tight. This is a market that rewards winners, and punishes anyone caught on the wrong side of the narrative.