Bitcoin’s $70K Rebound Masks a Market Still on Edge After Long-Term Holders Dump 245K Coins

Bitcoin’s price action over the past week has been a Rorschach test for trader psychology. The world’s largest cryptocurrency staged a dramatic rebound, clawing its way back above $70,000 after plumbing a 15-month low near $60,000. On the surface, this looks like a classic V-shaped recovery. Bernstein analysts are doubling down on their $150,000 end-2026 price target, and the crypto faithful are already dusting off their laser eyes. But beneath the surface, the market is still nursing a hangover from one of the largest long-term holder capitulations in recent memory.

According to Cointelegraph, long-term Bitcoin holders unloaded 245,000 BTC as prices tumbled below $60,000 last week. That’s not just a blip, it’s a seismic shift in on-chain behavior. These are the addresses that usually hold through thick and thin, but even they blinked as macro conditions tightened and risk appetite evaporated. The forced selling set off a cascade of liquidations, with open interest in perpetual futures dropping by more than $2.3 billion in 48 hours. The tape was a bloodbath, and the only thing more aggressive than the selling was the speed of the reversal.

So what changed? The macro backdrop remains fraught. Treasury Secretary Clary Bessent has made it clear that there will be no government bailout for crypto. Fed Governor Christopher Waller shrugged off Bitcoin’s volatility, telling Bitcoin Magazine that crypto crashes “don’t threaten banks.” Translation: you’re on your own. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg strategist is warning that Bitcoin could retrace all the way to $10,000 if global risk appetite keeps weakening and equity volatility spikes. The threat of a liquidity vacuum is real, and the market knows it.

Yet here we are, with Bitcoin back above $70,000, and the bulls already calling the bottom. The on-chain data tells a more nuanced story. Yes, there’s been a flush, but the supply held by short-term holders is rising, and exchange balances are ticking up. The market is in a state of uneasy equilibrium, with buyers stepping in at lower levels but conviction still fragile. The options market is pricing in elevated volatility, with at-the-money implieds north of 60%, a far cry from the sleepy conditions in equities.

If you’re looking for a clean narrative, you won’t find one. The market is split between those who see the recent dump as a healthy reset and those who fear it’s the start of a deeper unwind. The reality is that Bitcoin’s price action is now a function of macro cross-currents, not just crypto-native flows. The Fed’s next move, equity volatility, and global risk sentiment are all in the driver’s seat. The days of Bitcoin marching to its own drum are over, for now, at least.

Strykr Watch

Technically, Bitcoin is at a crossroads. The $70,000 level is now acting as a psychological pivot, with resistance at $72,500 and support at $68,000. The 200-day moving average sits at $65,400, and a break below that would invalidate the bullish setup. RSI has bounced from oversold, now printing 43, but momentum is still muted. The options market is pricing a 12% move for the next month, which is elevated but not extreme by crypto standards.

On-chain, the supply held by long-term holders has dropped to a 9-month low, while exchange inflows have spiked. This is classic post-capitulation behavior, but it’s too early to call a durable bottom. Watch for a sustained move above $72,500 to confirm a reversal. If Bitcoin fails to hold $68,000, the next stop is $65,000, with a potential flush to $60,000 if macro conditions deteriorate.

The risk is that the recent bounce is a dead cat, fueled by short covering and not genuine demand. If equity volatility picks up or the Fed turns hawkish, Bitcoin could be the first risk asset to crack. On the other hand, a dovish Fed and stable macro backdrop could see Bitcoin rip back toward $80,000 in short order.

This is a trader’s market, not an investor’s market. Keep stops tight, size positions accordingly, and be ready to flip bias as the tape evolves.

Strykr Take

Bitcoin’s rebound is impressive, but the scars from last week’s capitulation are still fresh. The market is on edge, and conviction is fragile. This is not the time to marry a narrative. Trade the range, respect the levels, and don’t get caught leaning the wrong way. The next move will be violent, and only the nimble will survive.

Strykr Pulse 61/100. Bitcoin’s bounce is real, but macro risks are still front and center. Threat Level 4/5.