Bitcoin’s Bear Market Denial: Institutions Balk as Price Holds $78,634, But Risks Multiply

Bitcoin’s price action is starting to feel like a bad joke that only the market can tell. The digital asset sits at $78,634, a level that would have been unthinkable two years ago, yet the mood is unmistakably dour. Institutions are finally admitting what most retail traders have felt in their bones for months: this is a bear market. But here’s the punchline—70% of those same institutions say Bitcoin is still undervalued. If that’s not cognitive dissonance, what is?

The latest Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode survey is a Rorschach test for crypto sentiment. One in four institutional investors now concedes that we’re in a bear market, but the majority still cling to the idea that Bitcoin is cheap. This is the kind of magical thinking that only happens at the intersection of hope and recency bias. Meanwhile, trading volume remains high, but relief is nowhere to be found. Resistance is everywhere.

It’s not just the price action that’s ugly. The narrative is fraying. The DOJ’s document dump revealing Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged contact with Bitcoin’s creators is the kind of headline that makes you question what universe you’re trading in. Add to that a parade of hacks—Step Finance losing $27 million on Solana, a single Ethereum address drained for $12.25 million—and you get a sense of a market that’s not just tired, but exhausted.

Technically, Bitcoin is stuck in a rut. Every rally attempt is met with a wall of selling. The $80,000 level is now a fortress, and each failed breakout only adds to the malaise. The tape is heavy, the order books are thin, and the algos are getting twitchy. The only thing more persistent than resistance is the denial among bulls.

The context is instructive. Bitcoin’s last major bear market was defined by apathy and low volatility. This one is different. Volatility is still high, but it’s the wrong kind—chop, not trend. Institutions are playing hot potato with allocations, unwilling to commit but unable to walk away. The hacks and scandals are a symptom of a market that’s lost its narrative. Even Ethereum, which should be basking in the glow of record staking levels, is overshadowed by security risks and whale dumps.

The analysis is straightforward. Bitcoin is in a bear market, but no one wants to say it out loud. The price is holding up better than sentiment, but that’s not a bullish sign. It’s a warning. When the crowd is this conflicted, the path of least resistance is lower. The hacks are not just noise—they’re a signal that risk is rising across the board. If institutions start to capitulate, the next leg down could be swift.

Strykr Watch

Bitcoin’s Strykr Watch are clear. Support sits at $75,000, with resistance at $80,000. RSI is stuck in neutral, and moving averages are flattening out. Watch for a break below $75,000—that’s your trigger for a move to $70,000. On the upside, a clean break above $80,000 could force short covering, but don’t bet the farm. The market is not rewarding breakout traders right now.

Ethereum’s record staking is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it’s a sign of confidence. On the other, it’s a liquidity trap. If stakers decide to exit en masse, the price could crater. The hacks are a persistent risk. Every new exploit erodes confidence and adds to the selling pressure.

The risks are obvious. Another major hack could trigger panic selling. If Bitcoin loses $75,000, the next support is a long way down. Institutional capitulation is the wildcard. If the big players start to unwind, liquidity will vanish. The Epstein headline is a sideshow, but it adds to the sense of unease.

Opportunities exist, but they require discipline. If you’re short, stay short until $75,000 breaks. If you’re long, use tight stops and don’t chase. Look for mean reversion trades in Ethereum and other majors, but size down. This is not the time to be a hero.

Strykr Take

Bitcoin’s price is holding up, but the market is sick. Institutions are in denial, hacks are rampant, and sentiment is rotten. Stay tactical, keep your stops tight, and don’t believe the hype. This is a bear market, whether the bulls admit it or not.

datePublished: 2026-02-01 14:46 UTC