Bitcoin Bounces as Bear Fears Linger: Is $85,000 the Next Stop or a Bull Trap in Disguise?

If you’re wondering whether this is the bottom for Bitcoin, you’re not alone. After a bruising selloff that took the price down to $74,000, Bitcoin staged a dramatic bounce back above $76,800 overnight. The move has traders split: is this the start of a new bull leg, or just a dead cat with a particularly convincing spring in its step?

The facts are as raw as the nerves on crypto Twitter. Bitcoin got hammered by forced selling, liquidations, panic, maybe a few too many over-leveraged traders who thought the only way was up. Exchange reserves have surged, according to Coinspeaker, which means coins are flowing onto exchanges and supply pressure is building. Yet, spot ETF inflows are returning, and the US ISM manufacturing PMI just posted a bullish 52.6, hinting at a macro tailwind. Bullish traders are eyeing a run at $80,000 and even $85,000, citing renewed risk appetite and the potential for a macro-driven squeeze.

But let’s not kid ourselves. This is a market still haunted by bear market fears. The bounce looks impressive on the hourly chart, but zoom out and you see a market that’s been chopping sideways for weeks. The return of ETF inflows is encouraging, but the exchange reserve surge is a red flag. If supply keeps piling up and demand doesn’t materialize, the next flush could be ugly.

Context is everything. The last time Bitcoin saw this kind of whipsaw action was in late 2025, when a similar pattern of forced selling followed by a sharp bounce set the stage for a multi-week consolidation. The difference now is that macro conditions are improving, US manufacturing is expanding, the dollar is slipping, and equities are stabilizing. That’s the kind of backdrop that can fuel a risk-on rally across assets, including crypto. But the market is still skittish. Every bounce is met with skepticism, every rally with profit-taking. The scars of the last correction haven’t healed.

The technical picture is mixed. Bitcoin is back above $76,800, but resistance at $78,000 is looming large. Exchange reserves are up, which means there’s more supply ready to hit the market if sentiment turns. RSI is recovering from oversold levels, but hasn’t yet flipped to outright bullish. The key is whether Bitcoin can reclaim $80,000, a level that has acted as both support and resistance in recent months. A sustained move above that would force shorts to cover and could trigger a run to $85,000. But if the rally stalls, another trip down to $74,000 or lower is on the cards.

Strykr Watch

The levels to watch are clear. Immediate support is at $76,000, with stronger backing at $74,000, the recent swing low. Resistance is stacked at $78,000, with a breakout zone at $80,000. The 50-day moving average is hovering just below $79,000, acting as a magnet for price action. RSI is climbing out of the danger zone, but hasn’t yet signaled a full reversal. If Bitcoin can hold above $76,800 and break through $78,000, the path to $85,000 opens up. But a rejection here could see the market retest the lows in short order.

The risks are obvious. If ETF inflows dry up again, or if macro conditions deteriorate, Bitcoin could see another round of forced selling. The surge in exchange reserves is a warning sign, if those coins start hitting the market, the sell pressure could overwhelm buyers. And if the rally fails to clear $78,000, the bears will smell blood.

But there are real opportunities here, too. A long position above $78,000 with a stop at $76,500 targets a move to $85,000. For the more cautious, waiting for a confirmed breakout above $80,000 is the safer play. On the short side, a rejection at $78,000 with a stop at $79,000 could ride a move back to $74,000. The key is to stay nimble, this is a market that punishes complacency and rewards quick reflexes.

Strykr Take

This is not the time to pick a side and dig in. Bitcoin is at a crossroads, and the next move will be decisive. The bounce is real, but so are the risks. If you’re quick, there’s alpha on both sides of the trade. Strykr Pulse 65/100. Threat Level 3/5. The market is nervous, but the setup is there for a breakout, if, and only if, demand can soak up the new supply.