Bitcoin Bulls Bruised as Institutions Call Bear Market, But Most Still See Undervaluation

Bitcoin’s price action has always been a Rorschach test for market sentiment, but this week the inkblot looks like a bear. The digital flagship sits at $78,634, licking its wounds after a bruising stretch that has left even the most diamond-handed institutions questioning their faith. Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode’s latest survey reveals that a quarter of crypto’s biggest players now admit we are in a bear market. The other three-quarters? They are still clutching their models, insisting Bitcoin is undervalued, even as the price chart looks like a ski slope.

The news cycle is not helping. “Resistance Everywhere, Relief Nowhere,” screams news.bitcoin.com, and they are not wrong. Bitcoin’s market cap stands at $1.57 trillion, but the mood is funereal. Trading volumes are high, but the only thing moving faster than the price is the exodus of retail traders. Meanwhile, Ethereum staking has hit an all-time high, with 36.6 million ETH locked up, but that has done little to stem the bleeding in altcoins. XRP is in technical freefall, and meme coins like Shiba Inu are getting vaporized.

Institutions are finally saying the quiet part out loud. According to the Coinbase/Glassnode survey, 25% of institutional investors now call this a bear market. Yet, paradoxically, 70% believe Bitcoin is still undervalued. That is a cognitive dissonance only crypto could produce. The price is down, the mood is sour, but the conviction remains. The last time we saw this kind of divergence between sentiment and positioning was in late 2022, right before the market staged a face-ripping rally.

The context is as messy as ever. Bitcoin’s rollercoaster ride has been driven by a toxic mix of macro uncertainty, regulatory overhang, and good old-fashioned exhaustion. The Fed’s pivot is still a rumor, not a reality. Liquidity is drying up, and the ETF flows that once promised to be a game-changer have turned into a trickle. Meanwhile, the altcoin complex is in shambles. XRP just lost a key technical level and is staring down a potential -77% breakdown. Shiba Inu is setting new local lows, and even Cardano’s +25% February win is being ignored.

Cross-asset correlations are breaking down. Bitcoin is no longer trading as a risk asset; it is trading as an orphan. Gold and silver are getting liquidated for cash, and equities are wobbling. The narrative that Bitcoin is a hedge is wearing thin. The only thing it is hedging right now is your patience.

The analysis here is brutal but necessary. The market is in a bear phase, but it is not a panic. Institutions are not dumping—they are waiting. The conviction that Bitcoin is undervalued is not a catalyst; it is a coping mechanism. The real risk is that the market stays rangebound, grinding lower until the last bull gives up. But there is also opportunity. The last time sentiment was this bad, the market was setting up for a major reversal.

Strykr Watch

Bitcoin is holding $78,634, with key support at $76,000 and resistance at $80,000. A break below $76,000 opens the door to $72,000, while a move above $80,000 targets $85,000. RSI is oversold, but there is no sign of capitulation. Volume is high, but it is mostly churn. Ethereum staking is at record levels, but that is not translating into price support for ETH or the broader market. Altcoins are in freefall, with XRP and Shiba Inu leading the way down.

The risks are clear. If Bitcoin loses $76,000, the next stop is $72,000, and there is little support below that. Regulatory surprises, especially in the US, could trigger another leg down. ETF outflows are a slow bleed, and if retail gives up, liquidity could vanish. The bear case is not a crash, but a slow, grinding decline that wears everyone out.

But there are opportunities. If Bitcoin can reclaim $80,000 on strong volume, the stage is set for a sharp rally to $85,000. Oversold conditions in altcoins like Polkadot and Polygon could produce violent short squeezes. For the patient, accumulating on dips below $77,000 with a tight stop is a high-risk, high-reward play.

Strykr Take

This is a market for survivors, not heroes. Bitcoin is in a bear phase, but the conviction remains. If you are long, stay nimble and use tight stops. If you are short, do not overstay your welcome. The next move will be sharp, but the direction is still up for grabs.

Strykr Pulse 41/100. Institutions admit bear market, sentiment weak, but undervaluation conviction persists. Threat Level 3/5.