
Strykr Analysis
BearishStrykr Pulse 38/100. Liquidations and ETF outflows signal more downside. Miners under water. Threat Level 4/5.
Michael Saylor has never met a Bitcoin dip he didn’t like, but even he might be sweating now. As Bitcoin slid below $75,000 for the first time in ten months, the crypto market delivered a masterclass in pain. Nearly $2.5 billion in liquidations, according to CoinGlass, wiped out levered longs and left miners gasping for air. The carnage didn’t stop there. MicroStrategy, the world’s most notorious Bitcoin accumulator, doubled down and bought another 855 coins, as if the market hadn’t just set fire to billions in notional value.
Let’s talk numbers. Bitcoin’s low print on Monday was $74,500, a level not seen since April 2025. That’s a -7% weekly move, enough to put most miner rigs underwater. According to The Block, network hashpower is at all-time highs, but profitability is in the basement. Bitmine Immersion Technologies now controls 3.55% of Ethereum’s supply, but that’s cold comfort when the price action is this ugly. The ETF crowd isn’t helping either. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have accelerated, with redemptions driving forced selling across the board. The result? One of the worst liquidation waves in recent memory and a market that feels like it’s running out of greater fools.
The news cycle is relentless. Reuters flagged the $2.56 billion in liquidations, while CNBC and DailyCoin are already asking if Bitcoin is “sliding to zero.” It’s not, but the sentiment is about as bullish as a funeral. Even the perma-bulls are quiet. The only one buying is Saylor, and he’s doing it with the kind of conviction that makes you wonder if he knows something the rest of us don’t, or if he’s just doubling down on a losing hand.
The context here is brutal. Crypto volatility is back, but not in the way traders like. This isn’t a euphoric breakout. It’s a margin call massacre. The last time we saw this kind of action was in the aftermath of the Terra/Luna collapse, when forced sellers drove prices lower in a feedback loop. This time, it’s ETF outflows and miner capitulation doing the dirty work. The difference is scale. The market is bigger now, but the pain is just as real.
Cross-asset signals are no help. Equities are flat, gold is asleep, and the only thing moving is crypto. That’s a problem for anyone hoping for a risk-on rebound. When crypto is the only game in town, it usually means everyone else is on the sidelines. The macro backdrop is no friend either. The Fed is dithering, the U.S. government is shut down, and liquidity is drying up. This is not the environment where Bitcoin thrives.
Let’s talk about the miners. The hash rate is at record highs, but that’s not translating into profits. Most rigs are now running at a loss, and the weaker players are being forced out. This is classic miner capitulation, the kind of event that usually marks a bottom. But with ETF outflows accelerating, it’s hard to call a floor. The risk is that we see another leg down before the market stabilizes.
The ETF angle is crucial. When spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, the narrative was that institutional flows would provide a floor for prices. That’s not happening. Instead, we’re seeing the opposite. Redemptions are driving forced selling, and the market is struggling to absorb the supply. This is a new dynamic, and it’s not bullish. Until the outflows stop, every rally is suspect.
Strykr Watch
Technical levels are ugly. $75,000 was supposed to be support. It isn’t. The next real level is $68,000, which is where the last major liquidation cluster sits. If we break that, it’s a straight shot to $62,000. On the upside, resistance is now $80,000, a level that feels a million miles away. The RSI is at 38, which is oversold but not extreme. The 200-day moving average is down at $69,500. If we get there, expect fireworks.
Volatility is off the charts. Implieds are spiking, with 1-week at-the-money options pricing in a 15% move. Skew is heavily tilted to the downside, with puts trading at a premium. This is a market that expects more pain. If you’re looking for a reversal, you want to see a flush below $68,000 with capitulation volume. Until then, the path of least resistance is lower.
The miner story is worth watching. If hashpower starts to drop, that’s your signal that the worst is over. Until then, every bounce is a shorting opportunity. The ETF flows are the other canary. If redemptions slow, the market can stabilize. If not, buckle up.
The risk is that this turns into a full-blown liquidation cascade. If $68,000 breaks, there’s no real support until $62,000. That’s where the last major buyer stepped in. If they’re gone, it’s anyone’s guess how low we go.
Opportunities are on the short side. If you’re nimble, you can fade every rally into resistance. If you’re patient, wait for the capitulation flush and buy when everyone else is puking. Just don’t try to catch the falling knife unless you have a plan.
Strykr Take
This is not the time to be a hero in crypto. The market is telling you that the pain isn’t over. Miners are capitulating, ETFs are bleeding, and even Saylor’s conviction is starting to look like desperation. If you’re trading Bitcoin, keep your stops tight and your powder dry. The bottom will come, but not before a few more bodies hit the floor.
Crypto is a game of survival. Right now, the only winners are those who know when to step aside.
Sources (5)
Solana Gains Encrypted Capital Markets as Arcium Launches Mainnet Alpha
Arcium has launched its Mainnet Alpha on Solana, introducing encrypted execution as a native infrastructure layer and marking a significant step towar
Is Bitcoin Sliding To Zero? ETF Outflows & Liquidations Rattle Crypto
BTC's retreat toward the $68K region is driven by hefty spot ETF outflows & one of the worst liquidation waves on record.
Bitcoin falls to 10-month low — Here's what to know
Bitcoin traded at about $74,500 at its bottom on Monday – its lowest price since last April. CNBC's MacKenzie Sigalos explains.
Bitmine Tightens Grip on Ethereum With 3.55% of Total ETH Supply
Bitmine Immersion Technologies has crossed a milestone that is hard to ignore: the firm now controls 3.55% of Ethereum's total token supply, putting i
Bitcoin's price slide pushes most miner rigs into the red
Bitcoin miner profitability has been on a multi-year decline as network hashpower continues to push to new highs, The Block data shows.
