Bitcoin Miners Face Squeeze as Hashprice Plunges, Dormant Whales Stir and Bulls Eye 2027

If you want to see what existential dread looks like, check the faces of Bitcoin miners this week. February kicks off with a hashprice collapse that’s got mining rigs running hot and wallets running cold. Revenue for miners has cratered since mid-January, now scraping yearly lows, according to news.bitcoin.com. The pain is palpable: the hashprice is not just down, it’s at a discount unseen in 15 years, if you believe the power-law models making the rounds. Yet, as the market digests another $260 million in ancient coins dumped by a 12-year-old wallet, the debate is less about capitulation and more about who’s left holding the bag.

Here’s the setup. Miners, already battered by rising difficulty and post-halving economics, are now facing a double whammy. Transaction fees have dried up as mempool congestion eased, and block rewards are a shadow of their former selves. The hashprice, a wonky but vital metric, is signaling distress. News outlets report it’s sitting well below its July peak, and the chart looks less like a staircase and more like a ski slope. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows leverage got flushed in Q4, leaving the market structure healthier but leaner. There’s less froth, but also less fuel for a vertical move.

Yet the real fireworks came when a long-dormant Bitcoin holder offloaded more than $260 million in coins. The market barely flinched. Some see this as a sign of maturity—others, as a warning that even the whales are losing patience. Blockonomi’s power-law model, which has been uncannily accurate in the past, now projects a 105% return by 2027 from these levels. That’s a big number, but models don’t pay your margin calls.

Zoom out and the context gets even weirder. The Bitcoin market is digesting not just miner capitulation, but also a broader risk-off turn across crypto. Ethereum just absorbed $1.16 billion in liquidations, Solana is in freefall below $95, and Pi Network’s token is tanking ahead of a massive unlock. Altcoin season is supposedly “ahead,” but the technicals look more like a graveyard than a launchpad. The only ones smiling are the whales, who seem to be buying the panic. On-chain realized price metrics suggest a healthier structure, but that’s cold comfort to anyone who bought the top.

So why should traders care? Because this is the kind of market where the weak hands get shaken out and the strong hands get paid. The flush of excess leverage means there’s less risk of a cascading liquidation event, but also fewer forced buyers on the way up. If you’re a miner, you’re praying for a fee spike or a price rally. If you’re a trader, you’re watching for signs of capitulation—or the kind of whale accumulation that precedes a face-melting rally. The models say “deepest discount in 15 years.” The market says “show me.”

Strykr Watch

Technically, Bitcoin is clinging to key support in the $95,000 zone. A break below that level opens the door to a fast move lower, with the next real support not showing up until the low $90Ks. On the upside, resistance is stacked at $98,000 and then $102,000. RSI is hovering near oversold on the daily, but not quite at panic levels. Moving averages are starting to roll over, with the 50-day threatening to cross below the 200-day for the first time since last summer. If that happens, expect the algos to pile on. Volatility is elevated but not extreme; implieds are pricing in a 7% weekly move, which feels about right given the tape.

The miners’ pain is real, but so is the potential for a snapback if hashprice recovers. Watch for fee spikes or mempool congestion as early signals. If whales keep buying the dips, the bottom could be in. But if support cracks, look out below.

The bear case is obvious. If Bitcoin loses $95,000, the next stop could be a full-fledged miner capitulation event. That’s when you see forced selling, rigs unplugged, and sentiment go from bad to apocalyptic. Regulatory risk is always lurking, and a hawkish Fed could add insult to injury. The risk of another dormant whale dumping coins is nonzero, and with liquidity thin, it wouldn’t take much to trigger a cascade. Altcoins are already bleeding, and if Ethereum or Solana break lower, Bitcoin could get dragged down in the undertow.

On the flip side, the opportunity is just as clear. If you believe the power-law models, this is the deepest discount in years. Long-term holders are accumulating, and the flush of leverage means the market is less fragile. A clean break above $98,000 targets $102,000, and if the miners catch a bid, the rally could be sharp. For the brave, buying the panic with a tight stop below $95,000 could pay off. For the patient, waiting for a confirmed reclaim of $98,000 is the higher-probability play. Either way, the risk-reward is finally starting to look interesting.

Strykr Take

This is the kind of market that separates the tourists from the traders. The pain is real, but so is the opportunity. If you have conviction, size your risk, set your stops, and let the weak hands do the panicking. The next big move will be violent—just make sure you’re on the right side of it.