Polymarket Bets on Bitcoin’s $70K February as Crypto Volatility Hits Altcoins Hard

If you want to know where the real degens are placing their bets, look no further than Polymarket. While the rest of the crypto world is busy licking its wounds from a brutal selloff, the prediction markets are quietly pricing in a February where Bitcoin spends more time below $70,000 than above it. The MVRV Z-Score is at multi-year lows, volatility is back with a vengeance, and altcoins are getting absolutely steamrolled. Welcome to the new normal, where every bounce is suspect and every dip feels like the start of a capitulation cascade.

The last 24 hours have been a masterclass in pain for crypto traders. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $72,000 in early Asian trading, hitting its lowest level in nearly 16 months, according to BeInCrypto. On-chain data shows the MVRV Z-Score has compressed to levels last seen when Bitcoin was trading at $29,000. That’s not a typo. The market is so washed out that even the metrics are having flashbacks to 2023. Meanwhile, Polymarket, the world’s favorite decentralized casino, has odds heavily tilted toward Bitcoin closing February under $70,000. The crowd isn’t just bearish, they’re practically pricing in a funeral.

Altcoins are faring even worse. XRP has lost the psychological $1.60 support and is now at its lowest point in over a year. Dogecoin is struggling to hold $0.10, and Shiba Inu just confirmed a technical “death cross” with long liquidations outpacing shorts by a ridiculous 8,972% in 12 hours. Ethereum is deep in oversold territory, but nobody’s lining up to catch that falling knife. The only thing rising in crypto right now is the collective blood pressure of traders watching their portfolios evaporate.

The context here is brutal. Bitcoin’s volatility has returned with a vengeance, fueled by geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty. The Federal Reserve is buying up short-dated Treasurys, but that hasn’t stopped the risk-off mood from infecting every corner of the market. The narrative has shifted from “when moon” to “how much lower,” and the technical picture is ugly across the board. The last time the MVRV Z-Score was this low, Bitcoin staged a massive rally, but that was after a much deeper washout. This time, the market feels different. The leverage is lower, the conviction is weaker, and the prediction markets are calling for more pain.

The altcoin carnage is especially telling. When Bitcoin sneezes, altcoins catch pneumonia, and this week has been no exception. XRP’s breakdown below $1.60 is a technical disaster, and the lack of any meaningful bounce suggests that sellers are still in control. Dogecoin’s flirtation with $0.10 support is a reminder that meme coins are only fun when the market is risk-on. Shiba Inu’s liquidation imbalance is a neon sign flashing “get out while you can.” Even Ethereum, the perennial favorite of crypto bulls, can’t find a bid. The market is so oversold that even the bottom fishers are staying on the sidelines.

Strykr Watch

For Bitcoin, the key level to watch is $70,000. If that breaks, the next stop is $68,000, with a possible flush down to $65,000 if the selling accelerates. On the upside, $72,000 is the first resistance, followed by $74,500. The RSI is hovering in the low 30s, signaling extreme oversold conditions, but that’s been the case for days now. Altcoins are even uglier. XRP needs to reclaim $1.60 to avoid a freefall to $1.40. Dogecoin must hold $0.10 or risk a cascade to $0.08. Shiba Inu is a technical train wreck, and Ethereum is stuck in a no-man’s land between $3,000 and $3,500.

The risks are obvious. If Bitcoin loses $70,000 with conviction, the entire market could unravel in a hurry. Altcoins are already in freefall, and another leg down in Bitcoin would likely trigger forced liquidations across the board. Macro risks are also lurking. Any escalation in geopolitical tensions, or a surprise hawkish move from the Fed, could send crypto into a full-blown panic. The prediction markets are rarely this bearish, and when they are, it usually pays to listen.

But there are opportunities for the brave. If Bitcoin can reclaim $72,000 and hold it, a short squeeze could push prices back toward $75,000 in a hurry. Altcoins are so washed out that even a modest bounce could produce outsized gains. For those with iron stomachs, scaling into positions at support levels with tight stops could pay off big if the market turns. Just don’t expect a V-shaped recovery, this is a market that rewards patience and punishes FOMO.

Strykr Take

Crypto is a blood sport, and right now, the bears are winning. But markets don’t stay oversold forever. The setup is there for a violent reversal if sentiment shifts, but until then, caution is the name of the game. Watch the Strykr Watch, manage your risk, and remember that in crypto, the only thing more dangerous than catching a falling knife is missing the bounce when it finally comes.

Strykr Pulse 44/100. Sentiment is deeply bearish, but oversold conditions mean a reversal could come fast. Threat Level 4/5.