Bitcoin Shorts Hit Multi-Year High as Options Expiry Looms: Is a Volatility Squeeze Coming?

If you’re the kind of trader who thinks the market is just a casino with better suits, today’s Bitcoin setup is your kind of chaos. The options market is staring down a $2.5 billion expiry, with max pain at $74,000 and spot trading near $68,000. Short interest across centralized exchanges has exploded to its highest since the 2024 bear market, and whales have dumped 12,000 BTC in a single day. If you’re not paying attention, you’re probably the liquidity.

The news cycle is frothy: Goldman Sachs has revealed a $920 million Bitcoin position in its latest 13F, which would have been a headline in 2021 but now just adds to the institutional arms race. Meanwhile, the CFTC is busy assembling its own crypto 'Olympics' committee, but the real sport is happening on the order books.

Here’s the timeline: as of early February 13, Bitcoin is stuck in a volatility chokehold. The options expiry is a classic volatility event, and with the max pain level so far above spot, the pain is likely to be felt by the late shorts if the market squeezes. Yet, the whale outflows and aggressive shorting suggest that someone is betting big on a breakdown.

Historically, these setups have been rocket fuel for volatility. In August 2024, similar short build-ups led to a +18% short squeeze in two days. But the macro backdrop is different this time: equities are wobbling, Treasurys are rallying, and risk appetite is in the ICU. The market is pricing in fear, not greed.

The options market is screaming for a move. Implied volatility is elevated, and the skew is heavily negative. The last time we saw this kind of short positioning, Bitcoin either ripped faces off or collapsed through key support. There’s no middle ground.

Strykr Watch

Technically, $68,000 is the line in the sand. Below that, the next real support is $64,500, with the 200-day moving average lurking at $62,800. Resistance is stacked at $70,000 and $74,000 (max pain). RSI is neutral at 49, but funding rates are negative, showing the market is paying to be short. Open interest is near all-time highs, and perpetuals are trading at a slight discount to spot, a classic bear tilt but also a setup for a face-melting squeeze if the market turns.

The risk here is obvious: if whales keep dumping and spot cracks $68,000, the next stop is a fast trip to $64,500 or worse. But if the options expiry triggers a short squeeze, the pain trade is higher, not lower.

For traders, the opportunity is in the asymmetry. You can fade the crowd by buying spot with a tight stop below $67,500, or you can ride the momentum if $68,000 cracks. Option buyers are licking their chops, and the volatility sellers are about to get a lesson in humility.

Strykr Take

This is the kind of setup that makes or breaks a quarter. The crowd is leaning short, but the options market is primed for a squeeze. If you’re nimble, there’s money to be made on both sides. Just don’t get caught in the middle.

datePublished: 2026-02-13 06:15 UTC