Strykr Analysis
BearishStrykr Pulse 39/100. Forced selling, underwater treasuries, and no sign of a bottom yet. Threat Level 4/5.
The latest chapter in Bitcoin’s epic volatility saga features a cast of familiar characters, corporate treasuries, panicked short-term holders, and a market that can’t decide if it’s in full-blown capitulation or just another leverage reset. Bitcoin has dipped near $60,000, leaving Strategy’s much-hyped $59.75 billion treasury stash officially underwater. For the first time since the 2025 melt-up, the ‘diamond hands’ narrative is getting stress-tested by cold, hard math.
The headlines are brutal. CryptoSlate reports that short-term holders are panic selling at a loss, while CoinPaper fans the flames with talk of a 15% slide toward $34,500 if hedge funds, banks, and miners keep feeling the squeeze. The Sharpe ratio is at historic lows, according to NewsBTC, and the market’s risk premium is evaporating faster than a meme coin pump.
But here’s the real story: the market isn’t just repricing risk, it’s recalibrating who gets to hold the bag when the music stops. Corporate treasuries, once the poster children for institutional adoption, are now staring at red ink. Strategy’s Bitcoin bet, which looked genius at $126,000, now looks like a masterclass in FOMO. The question isn’t whether they’ll sell, it’s whether the rest of the market will blink first.
The timeline is ugly. Since peaking at $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has been in a relentless downtrend. The latest flush through $65,000 triggered a wave of forced selling, with short-term holders capitulating and leverage getting vaporized. Bithumb’s recovery of 99.7% of excess Bitcoin is a rare bright spot, but it’s a sideshow compared to the main event: a market-wide reset of risk appetite.
The macro context is no friend to crypto. The Fed is still hawkish, inflation is sticky, and risk assets everywhere are feeling the pinch. The S&P 500 is flat, volatility is compressed, and the appetite for speculative assets is fading. Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has ticked higher, but it’s not the safe haven it once pretended to be. If anything, it’s a high-beta proxy for risk-on sentiment, and right now, that sentiment is on life support.
Historically, Bitcoin has thrived on chaos. But this time, the chaos is coming from within. The market structure has changed. Institutional players are bigger, leverage is higher, and the margin for error is razor thin. When the music stops, someone has to eat the loss, and for now, it looks like corporate treasuries are first in line.
The technicals are ugly. Support at $60,000 is flimsy, with little to stop a slide to $55,000 or even $50,000 if the selling accelerates. Resistance is stacked at $65,000, the scene of the last failed bounce. The Sharpe ratio is plumbing new depths, and the market is still working through the excesses of the last bull run.
The risk is clear: if Bitcoin can’t hold $60,000, the next leg down could be brutal. The opportunity? If the market can absorb the forced selling and find a floor, the stage is set for a classic accumulation phase. But don’t expect a V-shaped recovery. This is a market that needs to rebuild trust, and that takes time.
Strykr Watch
All eyes are on the $60,000 level. Lose that, and the next stop is $55,000, with a possible overshoot to $50,000 if the panic accelerates. Resistance is at $65,000, with a major wall at $70,000. The 200-day moving average is rolling over, and the RSI is stuck in the low 30s, a classic bear market signal.
Volume is spiking on down days, a sign that the forced selling isn’t done yet. Open interest in futures has cratered, and funding rates have flipped negative. The market is in risk-off mode, and the path of least resistance is still down.
If you’re looking for a bottom, watch for signs of capitulation, massive volume spikes, negative funding, and a flush to $55,000 or lower. Until then, every bounce is a selling opportunity.
The wildcard? A surprise Fed pivot or a major macro shock that reignites risk appetite. But don’t bet on it. For now, the market is in detox mode.
The risks are everywhere. Another round of forced liquidations could push Bitcoin below $60,000 and trigger a cascade of stop-loss selling. If corporate treasuries start dumping, all bets are off. The opportunity? If the market can hold $60,000 and work through the excesses, the next bull run will be built on a much stronger foundation. But patience is required.
Strykr Take
This isn’t the time to be a hero. Bitcoin is in the penalty box, and the market is still working through the hangover of the last bull run. The forced selling isn’t done, and the risk of another leg down is real. But for those with patience and a strong stomach, this is where the next cycle begins. Wait for the flush, watch for capitulation, and be ready to buy when everyone else is too scared to click the button.
Sources (5)
Strategy's Bitcoin Treasury Is Underwater But 2025 Results Still Impressive
Bitcoin dips near $60K, leaving Strategy's $59.75 billion holdings underwater.
Bitcoin short term holders are panic selling at a loss but was this capitulation or just a leverage reset?
Bitcoin's slide through $65,000 and toward $60,000 felt like a stress test the market had been postponing. The move was sharp enough to force a reset
Bithumb commits to repay unrecovered funds after regaining 99.7% of platform BTC error
Bithumb recovered 99.7% of the excess Bitcoin and used its own funds to cover the rest.
HBAR Price Eyes a Potential 30% Rally – Here's What the Charts are Signalling
Hedera has come under renewed pressure after a broader market downturn dragged HBAR lower. The recent price drop reflects bearish cues driven by macro
Shiba Inu (SHIB) Bounces 23% in Blink of an Eye: Is Recovery Only Question of Time?
Shiba Inu has just produced one of the market's fastest short-term recoveries. Following hours of nonstop downward pressure, the token bounced about 2