India-U.S. Trade Pact Fails to Ignite Metals: Why Commodities Remain Stuck in Neutral

If you wanted fireworks in commodities after the India-U.S. trade deal, you got a damp sparkler instead. The much-hyped agreement, inked in the afterglow of Modi’s Davos charm offensive, was supposed to be a shot of adrenaline for metals and raw materials. Instead, the market yawned. DBC, the broad commodity ETF, is frozen at $23.54, as if someone unplugged the Bloomberg terminal. Gold and silver, which should have been the main event, staged a rout so swift that even the most jaded metals desk had to double-check their screens.

Let’s rewind. The India-U.S. trade deal, announced late Monday, was trumpeted as a win for global supply chains and a new dawn for metals demand. Yet, as CNBC’s morning anchors tried to muster enthusiasm, traders were already fading the move. The numbers tell the story. Gold, up a staggering +23% in January, reversed course violently as the deal failed to deliver any meaningful tariff relief or new infrastructure commitments. Silver, the perennial underdog, followed suit. Meanwhile, DBC, which tracks a basket of energy, metals, and agriculture, didn’t budge. Four ticks, four hours, zero movement.

Why the apathy? For one, the trade deal was long anticipated. Every macro desk from London to Singapore had already priced in the headline. Second, the actual substance of the agreement was underwhelming. No new quotas, no major tariff rollbacks, and certainly no commodity supercycle catalyst. The metals rout, which started as a technical unwind, accelerated as the dollar caught a bid on strong U.S. factory data. Bloomberg’s closing bell coverage was a parade of shrugs.

Here’s the kicker: the inflation narrative, which had been the lifeblood of the commodity trade for the last 18 months, is now looking shaky. Australia just raised rates for the first time since 2023, hinting at a global inflation bump, but the market’s response was to sell metals and buy the dollar. The old playbook, buy commodities when central banks get hawkish, isn’t working. Instead, traders are parking cash and waiting for a real catalyst.

Cross-asset signals are flashing confusion. The tech-heavy XLK ETF is also flat, showing that risk appetite isn’t flowing anywhere. Equities are drifting, commodities are comatose, and the dollar is quietly grinding higher. This isn’t the stuff of bull markets. It’s more like the calm before a storm, or maybe just the calm before more calm.

Strykr Watch

Technically, DBC is boxed in. Support sits at $23.40, resistance at $24.10. RSI is stuck at 48, neither oversold nor overbought. The 50-day moving average is flatlining at $23.60. Gold’s key support is $2,150, with resistance at $2,250. Silver is flirting with a breakdown at $24.00. Volatility, as measured by the Strykr Score, is a tepid 32/100. There’s no momentum, no conviction. This is a market in stasis, and the technicals reflect that.

The risk here is complacency. If the dollar keeps grinding higher, commodities could see another leg down. Conversely, any real inflation shock or supply disruption could jolt the market awake. But for now, the path of least resistance is sideways.

Opportunities are scarce, but not nonexistent. Range traders can fade moves near the edges, short DBC at $24.10, cover at $23.40. Gold bulls should watch for a reclaim of $2,250 before getting aggressive. Silver is a pure momentum play, wait for a break below $24.00 or above $25.00. For the patient, this is a time to sharpen your knives, not swing for the fences.

Strykr Take

This is not the commodity supercycle you were promised. The India-U.S. trade deal is a nothingburger for metals, and the inflation narrative is losing steam. Until we get a real macro shock, expect more of the same: sideways price action, false starts, and plenty of opportunities for nimble traders who know how to play the range. The real move will come when everyone stops watching.

Strykr Pulse 38/100. Commodities are stuck in a rut, with no catalyst in sight. Threat Level 2/5. The risk is a sudden dollar spike or inflation surprise, but for now, the market is asleep.