Coinbase, Airbnb, and Applied Materials Earnings: Can US Growth Stocks Defy the Value Rotation?

If you’re tired of hearing about the “great rotation” from growth to value, you’re not alone. Every strategist with a Bloomberg terminal and a LinkedIn profile has been pounding the table for value and cyclicals since 2024. Yet, as another earnings season dawns, the market’s favorite US growth stocks, Coinbase, Airbnb, and Applied Materials, are about to step into the spotlight. The question isn’t just whether they’ll beat consensus. It’s whether they can reclaim the narrative in a market that’s suddenly allergic to anything with a triple-digit P/E.

Dow futures are up, but only just, and the S&P 500’s AI-fueled bull run is looking winded. The CNN Money Fear and Greed index is stuck in “Neutral,” which is just a polite way of saying nobody has conviction. Meanwhile, Adyen’s collapse in Europe is a cautionary tale for anyone betting that tech can do no wrong. If Airbnb or Coinbase whiff on earnings, expect the knives to come out fast.

Let’s talk numbers. Coinbase is coming off a quarter where spot volumes cratered, but derivatives and staking revenue picked up the slack. The street is expecting a modest beat, but with Bitcoin stalling at $67,000 and crypto sentiment in the gutter, the risk of disappointment is real. Airbnb’s bookings growth is slowing, and the market wants to see margin expansion, not just more hosts in Slovenia. Applied Materials is the wild card, riding the AI hardware boom but facing cyclical headwinds in memory and foundry demand.

The context is everything. US growth stocks have been the only game in town for half a decade, but the narrative is fraying. The Piper Sandler desk is calling for a rotation into value, and the smart money is listening. The S&P 500’s new all-time high on January 27 feels like ancient history after three sessions of chop and a hawkish jobs report. The bull market is alive, but it’s limping.

What’s different this time? For one, the Fed is telegraphing “dramatic” disinflation for 2026, but nobody believes them. The jobs report was a whipsaw, with headline strength but ugly 2025 revisions. That’s the kind of data that makes growth stocks look expensive and cyclical laggards look like bargains.

Coinbase is a pure play on crypto sentiment, and right now, that sentiment is radioactive. ETF flows have stabilized, but retail is nowhere to be found. If Coinbase misses, expect a swift repricing. Airbnb is fighting a two-front war: regulators want to tax them into oblivion, and consumers are getting sticker shock. Applied Materials is the only one with a clear secular tailwind, but even AI hardware is subject to inventory cycles.

Strykr Watch

Coinbase is trading just above its 50-day moving average, but the 200-day is closing in fast. A break below $120 opens the door to $105, while a beat on earnings could send it back to $145. Airbnb is stuck in a range between $130 and $145, with RSI at 48, neither oversold nor overbought. Watch for a breakout on volume. Applied Materials is flirting with all-time highs, but the options market is pricing in a 6% move post-earnings. The risk-reward is skewed to the downside if guidance disappoints.

Implied volatility is elevated across the board, with short-dated options seeing the most action. That’s a tell that traders are bracing for fireworks, but not betting on direction. The technicals are mixed, and the market is hungry for a narrative. If any of these names can deliver a beat and raise, expect a relief rally. If not, the rotation into value will accelerate.

The risk is that all three names miss or guide lower, triggering a sector-wide de-rating. The bull case is that at least one delivers a blowout quarter and drags the rest higher.

The bear case is simple. If Coinbase, Airbnb, and Applied Materials all disappoint, the narrative shifts from “buy the dip” to “get out while you can.” The risk of a crowded unwind is real, especially with positioning already stretched. Watch for a spike in put volume and widening credit spreads.

The opportunity is in the dispersion. If you can pick the winner, there’s alpha to be had. Long Applied Materials into earnings with a tight stop, or play Airbnb for a post-earnings bounce if bookings surprise. For Coinbase, the setup is binary, either crypto sentiment turns, or the stock gets punished.

Pair trades are in vogue. Long Applied Materials, short Coinbase, or vice versa, depending on your macro view. The market is rewarding stock pickers, not index huggers.

Strykr Take

Earnings season is always a minefield, but this one feels especially treacherous. The market wants a new narrative, and US growth stocks are on trial. If they deliver, the rotation to value pauses. If not, expect a swift and brutal repricing. For traders, this is the moment to be tactical, not dogmatic. The only thing that’s certain is volatility.

DatePublished: 2026-02-12 09:31 UTC