Precious Metals Rally Stalls as Asian Equities Surge, But Gold Bulls Eye ECB and Fed Signals

If you’re waiting for gold to save your portfolio from macro madness, you’re not alone. The precious metals complex staged a modest rally overnight, buoyed by a wave of optimism in Asian equities after the US-India trade deal and whispers of central bank dovishness. But as the dust settles, gold and its shiny cousins are running into resistance just as the macro picture turns murky.

Asian equities ripped higher, with India’s Nifty 50 up +5% and traders giddy over tariff cuts. That risk-on mood spilled into precious metals, which saw a broad bid as investors hedged their bets ahead of the ECB meeting and the next round of Fed jawboning. But the rally has already hit a wall, and gold bulls are now staring down the same old questions: Is this the start of a new leg higher, or just another fakeout in a market addicted to central bank hopium?

Let’s get granular. Gold futures jumped to test $2,250 overnight before sellers stepped in. Silver tagged $27.50 before giving up gains. Platinum and palladium caught sympathy bids, but the real action was in the options market, where traders piled into short-dated calls, betting on a volatility spike.

The news cycle is doing its best to keep everyone guessing. French inflation fell more than expected, which should be bullish for gold if you believe the ECB will blink. Meanwhile, the Fed is still the elephant in the room. Rate-cut expectations are baked in, but every time a central banker opens their mouth, the market re-prices risk in real time.

The context is classic late-cycle confusion. Gold has been the go-to hedge for every macro scare since 2020, but this time the narrative is wobbling. US data is solid, but not spectacular. Inflation is cooling in Europe, but not dead. Australia just hiked rates, reminding everyone that central banks are still in play.

Cross-asset flows are telling. Money is rotating out of commodities ETFs like $DBC, which is flatlining at $23.54, and into Asian equities and precious metals. But the move feels tactical, not structural. ETF flows into gold remain tepid, and positioning is light compared to previous risk-off episodes.

The options market is pricing in a volatility event, but nobody knows which direction. Skew is elevated, and traders are paying up for protection on both sides. That’s usually a sign that a big move is coming, but timing it is another story.

Strykr Watch

Gold’s technical setup is a minefield. The $2,250 level is now key resistance, with support at $2,190 and a danger zone below $2,180. RSI is hovering near 60, suggesting the rally is losing steam. Moving averages are converging, and momentum is stalling. If gold can break above $2,250 on volume, the next stop is $2,300. But a failure here could see a quick flush back to $2,180.

Silver is in a similar spot, with resistance at $27.50 and support at $26.80. Watch for a volatility spike if the ECB or Fed surprises. Platinum and palladium are along for the ride, but the real action is in gold and silver.

The risk is that a hawkish central bank or a surprise in US data triggers a rush for the exits. The opportunity is that a dovish pivot or a macro shock sends gold screaming higher. For now, the path of least resistance is sideways, but the setup is coiled for a move.

The bear case: Gold fails at $2,250, ETF outflows accelerate, and macro data surprises to the upside. The bull case: Central banks blink, inflation fears return, and gold rips through resistance.

For traders, the play is to straddle the range or fade extremes. Just don’t get caught leaning the wrong way when the volatility event hits.

Strykr Take

Gold isn’t dead, but it’s not bulletproof either. The precious metals rally is running on hope and hedges, not conviction. The real move will come when the macro fog lifts, either with a central bank surprise or a shock in global data. Until then, trade the range, manage your risk, and keep your stops tight. This market rewards patience, not heroics.