Family Offices Dump Tech and Chase Alternatives as Inflation Fears Reshape 2026 Playbook

If you want to know where the real money is moving, ignore the Twitter noise and watch the family offices. The latest CNBC survey shows more than 60% of US family offices are bracing for higher inflation, and they’re not just talking about it, they’re rotating out of tech and into real estate, private credit, and whatever ‘alternative’ means this week. The era of ‘buy the dip’ in tech is looking tired, and the new playbook is all about inflation hedges and yield.

The news cycle is full of hand-wringing about AI bubbles and stretched valuations, but the real story is the silent migration of capital out of the Nasdaq and into the shadows. US stock futures may have trimmed losses as the commodities meltdown eased, but the big money is already repositioning. According to CNBC’s survey published February 2, more than half of family offices now cite interest rates and inflation as their top risks for 2026. This isn’t a knee-jerk reaction. It’s a structural pivot.

The timeline is telling. After a decade of tech outperformance, 2025 saw the first real cracks. The Nasdaq Composite fell more than 200 points last week, and the S&P 500 posted its third straight weekly loss. The AI hype machine is still running, but even the bulls are hedging. Seeking Alpha’s ‘Roaring 20s’ crowd is betting on productivity gains, but the smart money is diversifying, fast. The old playbook of buying every tech dip is being replaced by a more nuanced approach: own real assets, lock in yield, and don’t get caught long duration if inflation surprises to the upside.

The macro backdrop is the real driver. US inflation remains sticky, and the Fed’s path is anything but clear. Rate cuts have been pushed out, and the bond market is calling the bluff. Family offices, who can afford to think in decades rather than quarters, are moving into real estate, private equity, and direct lending. The goal isn’t just to beat inflation, it’s to avoid getting steamrolled by it. The rotation is showing up in fund flows: alternatives are seeing inflows while tech ETFs like XLK are flatlining at $143.9, unable to break higher even as the AI narrative gets louder.

Historically, these rotations don’t happen overnight. In the early 2010s, family offices were slow to embrace tech, then piled in as FANG stocks became consensus. Now, the pendulum is swinging back. The search for yield is pushing capital into private credit, infrastructure, and, yes, good old-fashioned real estate. The irony is that while retail investors chase the next AI unicorn, the institutions are quietly building portfolios that can survive a stagflation scenario.

The cross-asset signals are clear. Commodities have stabilized after last week’s rout, but the energy narrative is back in play. Seeking Alpha’s ‘Energy In, Technology Out’ headline isn’t just clickbait, it’s the trade. Gold and real assets are back on the radar, and the VIX is creeping higher as traders hedge against another inflation shock. The days of tech as a one-way bet are over, at least for now.

The analysis is straightforward. Family offices aren’t chasing beta anymore. They’re looking for convexity, assets that can deliver returns if inflation spikes, but don’t blow up if rates stay higher for longer. That means less tech, more alternatives, and a healthy dose of skepticism about the next big thing. The AI bubble warnings are everywhere, but the real risk is in the duration trade. If inflation stays sticky and the Fed stays on hold, tech multiples have a long way to fall.

Strykr Watch

Technically, the XLK ETF is stuck in neutral at $143.9. The 50-day moving average is flattening, and momentum is fading. Support sits at $140, with a break there opening the door to $135. Resistance is up at $150, but the path higher looks crowded. RSI is drifting lower, and volume is drying up as the rotation accelerates. For traders, this is a market to fade rallies, not chase breakouts.

The real action is in alternatives. Private credit spreads are tightening, real estate cap rates are stabilizing, and infrastructure funds are seeing steady inflows. The risk is that if inflation surprises to the upside, tech could see another leg down while alternatives outperform. The opportunity is in spotting the laggards, assets that haven’t yet repriced for the new regime.

The risks are obvious. If the Fed surprises dovish, tech could rip higher and leave the rotation crowd scrambling. If inflation rolls over, real assets could underperform. But the base case is that the rotation has legs. Family offices aren’t known for chasing short-term trends. When they move, they move for years, not months. The pain trade is higher for alternatives and lower for tech until proven otherwise.

For traders, the opportunities are clear. Fade tech rallies at resistance, play for mean reversion in alternatives, and watch for signs of capitulation in the AI trade. For those willing to take the other side, a dovish Fed or a downside inflation surprise could set up a monster squeeze in tech. But for now, the smart money is betting on the rotation.

Strykr Take

The family office rotation out of tech and into alternatives is the real story of 2026. Inflation risk is back, and the days of tech as a safe haven are over. The new playbook is all about yield, convexity, and survival. Strykr Pulse 54/100. Threat Level 3/5.