Japan’s Nikkei Hits Record High as Global Rotation Leaves US Tech and Commodities Flat

There’s a new king in the global equity casino, and it’s not Silicon Valley or Wall Street. It’s Tokyo. As of February 10, 2026, the Nikkei 225 has smashed through yet another record high, extending its post-election rally and leaving US tech and commodities ETFs like XLK and DBC looking like they’re stuck in molasses.

While traders in New York and London nurse their caffeine hangovers and stare at flat screens, literally, as XLK sits at $143.37 and DBC at $24.255, both unchanged, Japan’s equity market is on a tear. The Nikkei’s latest surge is powered by a potent cocktail of political stability, a weaker yen, and relentless inflows from global funds desperate for anything that isn’t a US mega-cap.

The headlines are almost giddy: 'Japanese Stocks Extend Post-Election Rally; Dow Futures Little Changed.' That’s financial-speak for 'Japan is mooning, the US is yawning.' Even the once-mighty tech sector, which led the previous session’s rally, is now taking a breather. The rotation is real, and it’s accelerating.

Let’s talk numbers. The Nikkei 225 has shattered its previous all-time high, with local equities up over 12% year-to-date. Meanwhile, US tech’s flagship ETF XLK is flat at $143.37, and the broad commodities basket DBC is frozen at $24.255. Value stocks have outperformed growth by a wide margin, and large-cap tech is now a source of funds for everything from Japanese equities to small-cap value.

The divergence isn’t just about price. It’s about volatility. Implied vol for US tech has widened against small caps, while Japan’s volatility has compressed as the rally grinds higher. The so-called 'Takaichi trade', named after Japan’s new finance minister, has become the hot ticket for macro tourists and quant funds alike.

Why does this matter? Because the global rotation is leaving US tech and commodities in the dust. The days of buying every XLK dip are over, at least for now. The market is rewarding new leadership, and that leadership is coming from Tokyo, not Palo Alto.

Strykr Watch

For traders, the Strykr Watch are clear. XLK is boxed in at $143.37, with resistance at $146 and support at $140. A break below $140 could trigger a quick flush to $135, while a move above $146 would put new highs back in play. DBC is a non-event at $24.255, with little sign of life unless oil or metals catch a macro bid.

The Nikkei, meanwhile, is in blue-sky territory. Momentum is strong, but RSI is flashing overbought on multiple timeframes. Watch for mean reversion signals and be wary of chasing at these levels. The yen’s weakness has been a tailwind, but any sign of BOJ intervention could flip the script in a hurry.

Cross-asset flows are the real story. US tech is now a funding source, not a destination. Keep an eye on ETF flows, especially out of XLK and into international and value-oriented funds. If the rotation reverses, the snapback could be violent.

The risk is that everyone is now on the same side of the boat. If Japan stumbles, politically or economically, the unwind could be brutal. US tech is oversold on a short-term basis, but until the rotation exhausts itself, there’s little reason to step in front of the train.

Opportunities abound for those willing to trade the rotation. Short XLK on rallies to $146, with a stop at $148. Long Nikkei futures on dips, but keep stops tight. For the truly contrarian, look for a bounce in DBC if commodities catch a macro tailwind.

Strykr Take

The global rotation is real, and Japan is the market’s new darling. US tech and commodities are on the sidelines, at least until the next macro catalyst. Traders who recognize the shift, and trade the flows, will be the ones cashing in. The days of passive tech beta are over. Welcome to the age of active rotation.