VanEck Sees Bitcoin Holders HODL as Miner Profits Squeeze: Is the Next Rally Already Loading?

If you’re looking for drama, you won’t find it in the price of Bitcoin this week, but you might catch it in the on-chain data. While the crypto market’s headlines are dominated by Solana’s 11% nosedive and Algorand’s existential layoffs, the real story is happening quietly: long-term Bitcoin holders are barely selling, even as miner profitability flatlines. VanEck’s latest report (The Block, 2026-03-20) called it a 'potentially constructive' trend, which is the kind of phrase analysts use when they want to say 'bullish' without getting sued.

Let’s be clear: the market is not exactly euphoric. Bitcoin is stuck in a holding pattern, with price action so muted you’d think the network had been unplugged. Yet, beneath the surface, the supply side is tightening. Miner selling pressure has not increased, despite profitability metrics that would have most industrial operations reaching for the bankruptcy forms. Meanwhile, long-term holders are sitting on their coins like they’re the last seats on the Titanic. This is not the behavior you see at market tops.

The facts are stubborn things. VanEck’s report highlights that miner selling has remained steady, even as rewards per hash have declined post-halving. Long-term holders, those with coins aged 155 days or more, are barely budging. Glassnode data (not directly cited, but industry standard) shows that the 'HODL wave' is near cycle highs. At the same time, on-chain flows reveal that the percentage of Bitcoin held off exchanges is at a multi-year peak. The message: supply is getting tighter, not looser.

Context matters. The last time we saw this kind of standoff between holders and market volatility was in late 2022, right before the ETF narrative took over and launched Bitcoin to new highs. Back then, the market was just as jittery, with macro uncertainty, regulatory overhangs, and a pervasive sense that the next shoe was about to drop. Yet, the supply squeeze eventually forced prices higher, as even modest demand overwhelmed the trickle of available coins.

This cycle, the backdrop is even more complex. The FOMC is in data-dependent limbo, the Iran conflict is muddying the macro waters, and risk assets are struggling to find direction. Yet, Bitcoin’s on-chain data is quietly bullish. The fact that miners are not panic-selling, even as profitability drops, suggests that most of the weak hands have already been flushed out. The long-term holders are not just holding, they’re actively refusing to sell, even as the market tests their patience.

What does this mean for traders? It means the market is coiled, not broken. The lack of selling pressure is a setup, not a signal. If demand returns, even modestly, the supply squeeze could force a sharp move higher. The risk, of course, is that demand stays on the sidelines and the market drifts into irrelevance. But history suggests that when supply tightens and holders refuse to budge, the next move is usually up, not down.

Strykr Watch

Technically, Bitcoin is holding a key support zone just below $70,000. The 50-day moving average is flat, RSI is neutral, and volatility is at multi-month lows. The Strykr Watch to watch are $68,500 on the downside and $72,000 on the upside. A break below $68,500 would invalidate the bullish setup and open the door to a deeper correction, possibly toward $65,000. A move above $72,000 could trigger a chase to new highs, especially if on-chain data continues to tighten.

On-chain, the HODL wave is at a cycle high, miner balances are stable, and exchange reserves are at multi-year lows. These are not bearish signals. In fact, they suggest that the market is one catalyst away from a breakout. The only question is whether demand will show up before patience runs out.

The risks are real. If miner profitability drops further, we could see a capitulation event that floods the market with supply. A macro shock, whether from the Fed, geopolitics, or a regulatory crackdown, could trigger a risk-off move that drags Bitcoin lower. And if demand fails to materialize, the market could drift sideways for months, frustrating bulls and bears alike.

The opportunity is clear: if you believe in the supply squeeze, the setup is there. Longs with stops below $68,500 make sense, with targets at $75,000 and beyond. For the patient, accumulating on dips has historically paid off when supply tightens and sentiment is muted. Just don’t expect fireworks until the market gets a catalyst.

Strykr Take

This is not the top. The on-chain data is too constructive, the supply is too tight, and the holders are too stubborn. The market is coiled, not cooked. My take: accumulate on weakness, keep your stops tight, and be ready for the next leg higher. The move may not come tomorrow, but when it does, it’ll be sharp, and most traders will be chasing, not leading.

Strykr Pulse 67/100. On-chain data is quietly bullish, supply is tight, and the risk-reward favors patient longs. Threat Level 2/5.