Real Estate and Global Bonds Flatline as Liquidity Drains: Is This the Calm Before the Storm?

If you’re looking for excitement in real estate or global bonds, you’re in the wrong market. As of February 1, 2026, 22:45 UTC, both the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) and the iShares International Treasury Bond ETF (IGOV) are trading flat at $90.79 and $42.42, respectively. That’s not a typo—zero movement, zero drama. In a market addicted to volatility, this kind of stillness feels almost suspicious. Is this the calm before the storm, or just the market’s way of telling you to go outside and touch grass?

The lack of movement isn’t for lack of news. Treasury issuance is draining liquidity at a rapid clip, with $64.3 billion pulled from markets as the Treasury General Account swells (seekingalpha.com). Stocks are wobbling, Bitcoin is breaking down, and yet real estate and global bonds are sitting this one out. The headlines are all about risk: “There’s now a bigger risk for stocks than the economy or corporate earnings” (marketwatch.com), “Treasury Issuance Appears To Be A Problem For Risk Assets” (seekingalpha.com), and “5 Warning Signs Emerging Across Bitcoin, Gold, and Global Markets” (news.bitcoin.com). But the bond and real estate ETFs are as unbothered as a central banker at a press conference.

Historically, periods of low volatility in real estate and bonds are a warning sign, not a comfort. When liquidity dries up, these assets can go from safe haven to trapdoor in a hurry. The current setup is eerily reminiscent of late 2018, when markets were lulled into complacency before a sharp correction. The macro backdrop is hostile. Treasury settlements are draining cash, central banks are on the sidelines, and cross-asset volatility is rising. If equities roll over, don’t expect real estate or global bonds to be immune.

The technicals are a snooze. VNQ is pinned at $90.79, with support at $90 and resistance at $92. IGOV is stuck at $42.42, with support at $42 and resistance at $43. Momentum indicators are flat, and volume is light. There’s no sign of accumulation or distribution. This is a market in wait-and-see mode, but don’t mistake stillness for safety. When liquidity returns, these assets will move, and probably not in a straight line.

Strykr Watch

For VNQ, the Strykr Watch are $90 support and $92 resistance. A break below $90 opens the door to $88, while a move above $92 targets $94. The 50-day moving average is flat, and the RSI is neutral. For IGOV, watch $42 support and $43 resistance. The ETF is tracking global sovereign yields, which are vulnerable to any spike in US Treasury yields. If liquidity tightens further, expect downside.

The risks are clear. Treasury issuance is draining liquidity, and any spike in yields will hit bonds and real estate hard. If equities sell off, these assets will not be spared. The calm is deceptive. When volatility returns, it will be violent. Don’t get caught flat-footed.

But with risk comes opportunity. If VNQ pulls back to $88, that’s your entry for a bounce. For IGOV, a flush to $41.50 is a buy with a tight stop. The trend is flat, but the risk-reward is improving for patient traders. Wait for the move, then act decisively.

Strykr Take

Real estate and global bonds are flatlining, but don’t mistake stillness for safety. Liquidity is draining, and volatility is coming. Watch the Strykr Watch, keep your powder dry, and be ready to move when the market wakes up. The calm won’t last.