Veeco and Axcelis: The Overlooked Semiconductor Bets as AI Mania Leaves Value on the Table

The AI hype machine has chewed up and spat out every large-cap semiconductor name you can think of. Nvidia, AMD, even the chip equipment titans like ASML and Lam Research, they’ve all been bid up to nosebleed multiples, with the crowd elbowing each other to get a piece of the next AI-driven supercycle. But in the dust cloud behind the parade, two names have been quietly lagging: Veeco and Axcelis. Their shares have underperformed their larger peers, and for the first time in years, the value crowd is starting to sniff around the semiconductor-equipment sector.

Here’s the setup: Veeco and Axcelis are not household names, but they make the tools that make the chips that power everything from AI data centers to EVs. According to MarketWatch (2026-03-28), both stocks have trailed the sector, making them potentially compelling opportunities for investors who don’t want to pay 20x sales for the privilege of owning Nvidia. The sector’s P/E has converged with the S&P 500 at around 20x, but Veeco and Axcelis are trading at discounts, despite having exposure to the same secular growth trends.

Let’s talk numbers. The tech sector (XLK) is flat at $129.89, refusing to budge even as the broader market stumbles. The S&P 500 is down -7.2% from its highs, and the narrative has shifted from AI euphoria to macro dread. Yet, the fundamental story for chip equipment remains intact: capacity expansions, secular demand, and a global arms race for AI silicon. Veeco and Axcelis are levered to these trends, but their stocks are pricing in a recession that hasn’t arrived.

The context is telling. In the last AI cycle, second-tier equipment names massively outperformed once the initial hype faded and value investors rotated in. In 2016-2018, laggards like Veeco posted +80% returns in the 12 months after the sector’s initial melt-up. Today, with the sector’s multiples compressed and the macro backdrop uncertain, the setup is eerily similar. The market is obsessed with the next Nvidia, but the real money might be made in the names everyone forgot about.

The analysis is straightforward: Veeco and Axcelis are cheap, levered to secular growth, and ignored by the market. Their underperformance is not a function of deteriorating fundamentals, but of narrative fatigue. The market is tired of AI, tired of semis, and tired of chasing momentum. That’s exactly when value tends to outperform.

Strykr Watch

Technically, both Veeco and Axcelis are sitting on multi-month support levels. Veeco is holding above its 200-day moving average, while Axcelis is coiling just below resistance at its 50-day. RSI readings are neutral, and both stocks have seen a pickup in volume as value investors start to nibble. The setup is classic: underowned, oversold, and ready for a mean reversion bounce if the sector stabilizes.

The risk is that the macro backdrop deteriorates further. If the S&P 500 breaks down, even cheap stocks will get cheaper. But if the market stabilizes, Veeco and Axcelis are primed for a catch-up rally. Watch for earnings revisions and order book updates in the next round of sector reports. If capex guidance holds up, these stocks could move quickly.

The opportunity is to buy the laggards before the crowd wakes up. Long Veeco and Axcelis with stops below recent lows is a classic value play. Alternatively, sector-neutral pairs trades, long Veeco/Axcelis, short Nvidia/ASML, can capture relative outperformance if the rotation into value accelerates.

Strykr Take

The AI trade isn’t dead, it’s just moving down the food chain. Veeco and Axcelis are the forgotten winners in the semiconductor sweepstakes. The crowd will catch on eventually, but the best trades are made before the herd arrives.