Solana’s $104 Flashpoint: Can the Ethereum Challenger Survive the Altcoin Shakeout?

The crypto market is a graveyard of broken narratives, but Solana’s current predicament feels like a full-blown existential crisis. As of February 4, 2026, the so-called Ethereum killer is teetering at the edge of its own abyss, with price action that would make even the most hardened DeFi degens wince. $SOL has broken below the psychologically loaded $125 support, and now the charts are screaming about a possible $104 bottom. The question on every trader’s mind: Is this the last gasp before a face-ripping reversal, or the start of a much deeper capitulation?

The news cycle is not doing Solana any favors. The latest from Coinpaper (Feb 3, 2026) is blunt: “Solana price prediction tracks SOL breaking $125 support, sliding near $104, while TD Sequential and channel signals emerge.” In plain English, the technicals are lighting up like a Christmas tree, and not in a good way. The broader crypto market is under pressure, with $BTC slipping below $73,000 and credit stress signals starting to flicker (crypto-economy.com). Even the perennially optimistic Michael Burry is warning that a Bitcoin crash could spark a wider sell-off (tokenpost.com). If you’re looking for a safe haven, Solana isn’t it right now.

But let’s not pretend this is just about one altcoin. The macro backdrop is tightening, with risk assets everywhere feeling the heat. Corporate credit spreads remain compressed for now, but the sense is that the spring is coiling. Solana’s pain is symptomatic of a broader rotation out of speculative growth and into whatever passes for stability in 2026. The AI panic that just wiped $300 billion off the software sector (wsj.com) is spilling over into crypto, where the narrative has always been part tech, part dream, and part collective delusion.

Solana’s own fundamentals are a mixed bag. On-chain activity has cooled since the heady days of 2025, when NFT volumes and DeFi TVL on Solana looked like they might actually matter. Now, the only thing that matters is price, and the price is ugly. The $104 level is not just a number, it’s a line in the sand for market structure, leveraged longs, and the entire Solana ecosystem. If that goes, the next stop is a long way down.

Yet, for all the doom and gloom, there are signs of life. Some whales are quietly accumulating, betting that the market is overreacting to short-term technicals. The TD Sequential indicator, for all its voodoo, has a history of flagging local bottoms right when sentiment is at its worst. And if you believe in mean reversion, Solana at $104 is starting to look tempting for a bounce, even if only for a dead-cat variety.

What’s different this time is the lack of retail FOMO. The days of TikTok influencers shilling Solana NFTs are over. What’s left are the hard-bitten traders who remember what happened the last time a major altcoin broke a key support. The playbook is simple: wait for capitulation, then buy the blood. But this market has a nasty habit of punishing early knife-catchers. The risk is that $104 doesn’t hold, and the next liquidity pocket is much lower.

Strykr Watch

All eyes are on the $104 level. This is where leveraged longs are clustered, and where the forced liquidations could accelerate if the floor gives way. RSI is approaching oversold, but don’t expect that to matter if the macro backdrop worsens. The next resistance is back at $125, which now flips from support to a formidable ceiling. Moving averages are rolling over, with the 50-day EMA acting as a lid on any attempted bounce. If $104 fails, the $90 zone comes into focus, with little in the way of structural support until then.

The order book is thin, and liquidity is patchy. Algos are front-running every move, making it a treacherous environment for manual traders. Watch for a spike in funding rates and a flush of open interest as a signal that the bottoming process is underway. Until then, it’s a trader’s market, not an investor’s.

The real tell will be whether Solana can reclaim $125 on volume. If that happens, expect a short squeeze to $140. If not, prepare for more pain.

The bear case is straightforward: macro risk-off, crypto-specific regulatory threats, and a loss of confidence in altcoin narratives. If Solana can’t hold $104, the next wave of liquidations could be brutal. Watch for a spike in on-chain stablecoin outflows as a sign that the smart money is heading for the exits. Any sign of contagion from Bitcoin or Ethereum will only accelerate the move.

The opportunity here is for the bold. If you’re nimble, a long at $104 with a tight stop below $100 offers a defined risk-reward. The upside target is a retest of $125, with a moonshot to $140 if the squeeze materializes. Alternatively, fade any weak bounce into resistance and ride the short down to $90. This is not a market for tourists. Size accordingly.

Strykr Take

Solana is at a crossroads, and the next few sessions will decide whether it remains a contender or joins the long list of altcoin casualties. The technicals are ugly, but the risk-reward is starting to tilt in favor of the brave. Just don’t mistake bravery for recklessness. If $104 holds, there’s a trade. If not, step aside and let the bodies hit the floor. This is crypto, after all, where the only certainty is volatility.