S&P 500 Defies Macro Chaos as Manufacturing Surge Fuels Equities, Commodities Flatline

If you thought the S&P 500 would finally catch a case of macro nerves, think again. While metals are getting vaporized and the Fed chair drama is giving macro funds indigestion, the S&P 500 just clocked a fresh rally, up 1.1% as February kicks off. The catalyst? A U.S. manufacturing report that came in hot enough to make the risk-on crowd forget all about dollar debasement, Fed chair roulette, and the latest Trumpian soundbite.

It’s a scene straight out of a trader’s fever dream: equities melt up while the rest of the macro complex freezes. The commodity ETF $DBC is stuck at $23.54, not even pretending to care about the volatility ripping through metals. Tech is flat, with $XLK frozen at $145.26. Meanwhile, the headlines are a circus. 'Stocks Rise While Commodity Markets Face Fresh Volatility' (WSJ). 'Bear Market Potential Driven by Commodities, Inflation Bump' (YouTube). And, of course, 'Trump says DOJ should continue Fed Chair Powell probe' (CNBC). The S&P 500, unfazed, just keeps grinding higher.

Let’s get granular. As of February 3, 2026, the Dow is up 1.1%, the S&P 500 is in rally mode, and tech is a non-event. The manufacturing data is the real story: a strong print that suggests the U.S. economy is still humming, at least for now. That’s enough to keep the equity bulls in charge, even as the rest of the macro world looks like a demolition derby. The commodity complex, led by $DBC, is paralyzed. Metals are in free fall, but oil and ags are snoozing. The divergence is stark, and it’s forcing traders to pick sides: bet on the U.S. growth story or hedge for a macro shock that never seems to arrive.

Historically, this kind of cross-asset divergence doesn’t last. In 2018, a similar setup saw equities rally on strong data while commodities lagged. The result? Eventually, the cracks in the macro backdrop caught up with stocks. But this time, the market seems determined to ignore the warning signs. The Fed is in transition, inflation is sticky, and the dollar is supposed to be on the ropes. Yet here we are, with the S&P 500 making new highs and commodities stuck in neutral.

So what’s the trade? For now, the path of least resistance is higher for equities. The manufacturing data gives bulls cover, and the lack of movement in commodities means there’s no immediate inflation scare. But the risks are piling up. If the Fed gets hawkish, or if the macro data turns, equities could be in for a rude awakening. For now, though, the market is rewarding complacency.

Strykr Watch

Technically, the S&P 500 is pushing into overbought territory, but there’s no real resistance until the next round number. Momentum is strong, and the tape is clean. $XLK is flat at $145.26, a sign that the rotation out of tech and into cyclicals is still in play. $DBC at $23.54 is the canary in the coal mine, if commodities start to move, it could signal a regime shift. Watch for a pullback to the 20-day moving average as a potential entry point, but don’t get cute. The trend is your friend, until it isn’t.

The bear case is obvious: if the Fed surprises with hawkish rhetoric, or if the manufacturing data rolls over, equities could see a sharp correction. The lack of confirmation from commodities is a red flag, and the divergence can’t last forever. But for now, the bulls are in charge.

For traders, the opportunity is to ride the trend but keep stops tight. The risk-reward on long S&P 500 trades is still attractive, but the window is closing. If commodities start to move, or if tech wakes up, the rotation could get messy. For now, it’s a game of musical chairs.

Strykr Take

The S&P 500’s resilience is impressive, but don’t mistake complacency for invincibility. The divergence with commodities is a warning, not a buy signal. Play the trend, but keep your head on a swivel. When the music stops, you don’t want to be the last one holding the bag.

datePublished: 2026-02-03 00:15 UTC