Tech ETF Goes Nowhere as AI Hype Collides with Capex Reality: Is XLK the New Widowmaker?

If you want to know what happens when narrative meets numbers, look no further than the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK). On February 6, 2026, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average popping champagne at 50,000 and chip stocks putting on a fireworks show, you’d expect the tech ETF to be doing cartwheels. Instead, XLK is frozen at $140.84, a monument to indecision. No movement, no pulse, just a stubborn refusal to join the party.

This is not the tech market of 2021, where every dip was a buying opportunity and AI was the answer to every question. Now, the cracks are showing. The news cycle is a whiplash of contradictions: Forbes and WSJ are celebrating the Dow’s record, but Barron’s is warning that the rally is about everything except tech. CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa is flagging megacap tech’s capex binge, with spending outpacing revenue growth and investors starting to ask uncomfortable questions. The result? A sector that’s lost its narrative edge and, for now, its price momentum.

Let’s get forensic. Over the last 24 hours, XLK has printed $140.83501 four times in a row. That’s not just low volatility, that’s a market in a medically induced coma. Meanwhile, chip stocks are on a tear, Nvidia up 7%, Broadcom 7%, AMD 7.5%, but the ETF that’s supposed to capture the sector’s mojo is dead flat. The rotation into value is real, and it’s leaving tech in the dust. The Hindenburg Omen is haunting the S&P 500, and the only thing scarier than a market crash is a market that refuses to move at all.

The context is brutal. Tech was the undisputed champion of the last decade, with XLK tripling from $50 to over $150 between 2016 and 2024. Every macro shock was a buying opportunity, every earnings miss a chance to average down. But the AI arms race has turned into a capex arms race, and the market is finally asking whether all that spending will ever pay off. The last time tech got this crowded was in 2000, and we all know how that ended. Now, with the Dow making new highs on the back of value stocks, Goldman Sachs, Caterpillar, and the like, tech is the odd man out. The ETF is stuck in a range, and traders are stuck with a dilemma: fade the narrative, or bet on a comeback?

The analysis is not pretty. The AI narrative has gone from tailwind to headwind. Investors are no longer willing to pay any price for growth, especially when that growth is being bought with borrowed money. Capex is eating margins, and the market is starting to care. The result is a sector that’s lost its momentum, both literally and figuratively. The rotation into value is not just a headline, it’s a reality. The only question is whether it’s a temporary blip or the start of a new regime.

Strykr Watch

Technically, XLK is stuck in a tight range. The $140 level is acting as a magnet, with support at $138 and resistance at $143. The 50-day moving average is flat, and RSI is stuck near 50. Volume is nonexistent, suggesting that any move, up or down, could be explosive once it finally happens. For now, the path of least resistance is sideways, but don’t get complacent. When tech moves, it moves fast.

The risk is that traders get lulled into selling volatility or chasing false breakouts. With macro data on pause and cross-asset flows favoring value, it’s tempting to write off tech entirely. But the setup is classic late-cycle: tight ranges, low vol, and a market primed for a shock. If chip stocks keep running, XLK could finally catch a bid. Conversely, if the capex narrative gets worse, the ETF could break down in a hurry.

The opportunity is in waiting for confirmation. If XLK breaks above $143 on volume, the next stop is $150. If it loses $138, watch out below. The smart money is watching for a catalyst, a big earnings beat, a capex slowdown, or a sudden rotation back into growth. Until then, the play is to fade false moves and keep your powder dry.

Strykr Take

Tech is boring, until it isn’t. The current stasis in XLK is unsustainable. Either the sector is being left for dead by a market obsessed with value, or it’s quietly building energy for a breakout that will catch everyone off guard. The Strykr view: don’t sleep on tech. The moment the crowd declares the AI trade dead is usually when it’s time to start buying. For now, keep your stops tight and your eyes on the earnings calendar. The next move will be fast, and it won’t wait for consensus.