Strykr Analysis
NeutralStrykr Pulse 52/100. Market is paralyzed, but risk of violent move is rising. Threat Level 2/5.
Welcome to the part of the cycle where inflation hedges go to die of boredom. TIP, the go-to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities ETF, has been stapled to $110.25 for days, and you could be forgiven for thinking the market is closed for renovations. But beneath the surface, this is a market that’s quietly screaming for direction as traders recalibrate their inflation bets in real time. The stasis in TIPS isn’t a sign of confidence, it’s a symptom of a market that’s paralyzed by central bank ambiguity and a macro backdrop that refuses to commit to either a growth scare or a reflation narrative.
Here’s what you need to know: French inflation undershot, with January’s CPI up just 0.4% year-on-year, down from 0.7% in December (wsj.com, 2026-02-03). The ECB is now staring at a rate cut it doesn’t want to deliver, while the Fed is busy threading the needle between strong US data and a labor market that won’t quit. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia just hiked for the first time since 2023, a move that sent a ripple of confusion through global macro desks. The result? Inflation expectations are stuck in neutral, and TIP is the poster child for a market that’s lost its narrative.
If you’re looking for signals, you won’t find them in the price action. TIP hasn’t moved, and neither have breakeven inflation rates. The 10-year US breakeven is hovering around 2.21%, barely changed from last week. The bond market is saying inflation risk is dead, but the data says otherwise. Services inflation is sticky, wage growth is still running hot, and the next CPI print could easily flip the script. But for now, traders are content to sit on their hands and wait for someone else to make the first move.
The last time TIPS were this boring was in the late stages of the 2016 cycle, just before the Trump reflation trade kicked off. Back then, the market was caught off guard by a sudden burst of fiscal stimulus. This time, the risk is asymmetric: a dovish pivot from the Fed could send breakevens screaming higher, while a growth scare could crush inflation expectations and trigger a rush into nominal Treasuries. Either way, the current stasis is unsustainable.
The real story here is the disconnect between market pricing and macro reality. The bond market is pricing in a soft landing, with no risk of a 1970s-style inflation spiral. But the data is noisy, and the central banks are flying blind. The ECB is boxed in by weak growth and falling inflation, while the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The risk is that traders are underestimating the potential for a regime shift, either a sudden spike in inflation or a deflationary shock that catches everyone off guard.
Strykr Watch
Technically, TIP is in a coma. The ETF is glued to $110.25, with support at $109.75 and resistance at $111.00. The 50-day moving average is flat, and RSI is hovering around 50. There’s no momentum, no volume, and no conviction. If you’re looking for a breakout, you’ll need to see a decisive move above $111.00 or below $109.75, otherwise, this is just noise. The options market is pricing in record-low implied volatility, which means any move will be amplified when it finally comes.
The risk here is that traders are asleep at the wheel. The longer TIP sits in this range, the more likely it is that the next move will be violent. A surprise CPI print or a hawkish Fed could send TIPS tumbling, while a dovish pivot or a spike in commodity prices could trigger a breakout. Either way, the current stasis is a setup for a regime change.
If you’re looking for opportunity, the options market is your friend. Selling straddles or strangles at these levels is a bet that nothing happens, but the real money will be made by those who position for a breakout. Keep your stops tight and your eyes on the macro calendar, the next move will be fast and unforgiving.
Strykr Take
This is the calm before the storm. TIP is a coiled spring, and the trigger could be anything from a hot CPI print to a dovish Fed surprise. Don’t get lulled into complacency, when the move comes, it will be violent. Position accordingly.
Date published: 2026-02-03 08:46 UTC
Sources (5)
French Inflation Falls More Than Expected Ahead of ECB Meeting
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