Tech ETF XLK Holds Steady as AI Mania Shifts to Asia: Is the US Tech Rally Out of Gas?

If you’re looking for fireworks in US tech, you’ll have to settle for the faint glow of a dying sparkler. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, XLK to its friends, closed at $142.93, unchanged across four consecutive prints. Not a single tick in either direction. For an ETF that’s supposed to be the beating heart of US innovation, this is the financial equivalent of a flatline. And yet, just across the Pacific, Chinese AI stocks are putting on a show that would make even the most jaded NASDAQ bull blush.

The disconnect is impossible to ignore. On one side, Zhipu AI explodes 30% higher in Hong Kong, dragging a whole cohort of Chinese AI names with it. On the other, US tech is stuck in neutral, with XLK refusing to react to strong payrolls data, hawkish Fed signals, or even the latest round of AI hype. The narrative that “AI is the new oil” is alive and well in Asia, but in the US, it’s starting to look like the tank is empty.

Let’s run through the tape. XLK has printed $142.93 for four straight sessions, a feat of boredom that would make even the most patient quant consider a career change. Meanwhile, the news cycle is anything but dull. US jobs data came in hot, dousing hopes for imminent rate cuts. The Fed looks vindicated, at least according to Barron’s. Equity markets are steady, but the bullish narrative is starting to fray at the edges. Tom Lee is on TV talking about gold rerating higher and what that might mean for equities, but the market’s collective shrug is deafening.

The context here is critical. US tech has been the undisputed leader of the post-pandemic rally, with AI as the turbocharger. But with Chinese AI stocks suddenly catching fire, there’s a sense that the baton is being passed, or at least that the US is no longer the only game in town. The rotation into Asia is real, and it’s being driven by both fundamentals and flows. Chinese factories and ports are buzzing, AI startups are releasing new products at a breakneck pace, and investors are piling in. In contrast, US tech is starting to look tired. The Mag 7 are still dominant, but the incremental buyer is getting harder to find.

It’s not just about flows. The macro backdrop is shifting. Strong US jobs data means the Fed can afford to stay hawkish, which is a headwind for high-multiple tech. At the same time, valuations are stretched, and earnings growth is slowing. The AI narrative is still powerful, but it’s starting to feel like old news in the US, especially as Asian competitors ramp up investment and innovation. If you’re looking for the next big thing, you might have to look east.

But don’t count out US tech just yet. XLK’s flatline could be the market’s way of consolidating before the next move. The ETF is sitting right at its 50-day moving average, with support at $140.00 and resistance at $145.50. RSI is neutral, and volume is average. This is the classic setup for a breakout, or a breakdown. The question is which catalyst will come first.

Strykr Watch

From a technical perspective, XLK is boxed in a tight range. $140.00 is key support, and a break below could trigger a quick move to $137.50. On the upside, a close above $145.50 would signal a return of momentum, with $148.00 as the next target. The 50-day moving average at $142.90 is acting as a magnet, keeping the ETF pinned for now. Watch for volume spikes and intraday volatility as early signs of a breakout.

The biggest risk is that the US tech rally is simply out of gas. If earnings disappoint or the Fed turns even more hawkish, XLK could break down quickly. The rotation into Asian tech is real, and it could accelerate if US investors start to chase performance overseas. On the flip side, if US tech can deliver another round of earnings beats or if AI innovation picks up, the rally could resume in force.

For traders, the opportunity is in the range. Long above $145.50 with a stop at $143.00 targets $148.00. Short below $140.00 with a stop at $141.50 targets $137.50. Options traders can look at straddles or strangles to play a volatility breakout. Just don’t get caught fading the move if the breakout comes.

Strykr Take

US tech isn’t dead, but it’s definitely taking a breather. The next big move will be driven by earnings, Fed policy, or a fresh wave of AI innovation. Until then, trade the range and keep an eye on Asia, the real action might be happening on the other side of the world.

Date Published: 2026-02-12 04:45 UTC

Sources: cnbc.com, barrons.com, seekingalpha.com, Bloomberg, Reuters