XRP’s $1 Crash Risk Grows as Ripple Floods Market and Bearish Bets Surge

If you want to know what crypto pain looks like, look no further than the XRP chart this week. Ripple, never one to miss a liquidity event, just unlocked a staggering one billion XRP, right as the token cratered more than 17%. The timing is either a masterclass in liquidity management or the kind of thing that makes conspiracy theorists foam at the mouth. Either way, for traders, the message is clear: the gloves are off, and the downside is wide open.

The facts are as ugly as the chart. Ripple’s latest unlock, reported by u.today on February 2, dumped a fresh billion XRP into an already panicked market. The price tanked 17.29% in a matter of hours, slicing through support zones that had held for months. Analysts on Finbold are now openly targeting a $1 crash, a level that would have seemed unthinkable during the euphoria of late 2025. Instead, XRP is now the poster child for what happens when tokenomics meet relentless supply pressure.

The selloff isn’t happening in a vacuum. The broader crypto market is under assault from multiple fronts: Bitcoin is flirting with a break below $75,000, Ethereum is 10% away from losing its $2,000 handle, and token unlocks are flooding the market with fresh supply. According to Blockonomi, more than $638 million in tokens are set to hit the market this week alone, with XRP’s billion-dollar unlock leading the parade. The result? A perfect storm for altcoins, and XRP is right in the eye of it.

If you’re looking for a silver lining, you’ll need a microscope. Polymarket odds now put a 72% chance on Bitcoin slipping below $65,000, and XRP is showing even less resilience. The technicals are a horror show: breached support at $1.10, no meaningful volume on the buy side, and RSI readings that look like a cardiac arrest. Even the perma-bulls are running out of hopium.

Ripple’s unlocks have always been controversial, but this time the market’s tolerance has snapped. The combination of relentless supply, macro headwinds, and a total collapse in risk appetite has left XRP exposed. ETF holders in Bitcoin are sitting on paper losses, and the altcoin crowd is faring even worse. The narrative that Ripple can keep flooding the market without consequence is dead. The only question now is how much lower it goes before bargain hunters step in, or if they bother at all.

Strykr Watch

The technicals are a minefield. Immediate support sits at $1.00, a level that’s more psychological than structural at this point. Below that, the next real bid zone isn’t until $0.85, which would mark a full retrace of the 2025 rally. Resistance is stacked at $1.20, the prior support that’s now flipped to a ceiling. RSI is deep in oversold territory, but with supply this relentless, oversold can stay oversold until the last forced seller is liquidated. Volatility is off the charts, with implieds pricing in another 20% move by week’s end. If you’re trading this, stops aren’t optional, they’re mandatory.

The order book is thin, and liquidity is evaporating as market makers step back. Watch for forced liquidations if XRP breaches $1.00, with the potential for a cascade down to $0.85. On the upside, a reclaim of $1.20 would signal that the worst is over, but that’s a big if. For now, the path of least resistance is down, and the only buyers left are the ones who have no choice.

The macro backdrop isn’t helping. With Bitcoin ETF holders underwater and altcoin sentiment in the gutter, there’s little reason for fresh capital to step in. Token unlocks are set to accelerate, and the risk is that XRP becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, a crash that begets more selling as traders abandon ship.

Risk is everywhere. If Ripple continues its unlock schedule without mercy, the market could see a full capitulation. If Bitcoin loses $75,000, expect XRP to overshoot to the downside. The only thing that could turn the tide is a coordinated buyback or a macro reversal, neither of which seem likely in the near term.

Opportunities are scarce, but for the brave (or the reckless), there’s always a trade. Shorting rallies into $1.20 with a tight stop makes sense, targeting $1.00 and then $0.85 if the floodgates open. For those looking to buy the blood, scaling in below $1.00 with a stop at $0.85 is the only logical play. Just don’t expect a quick rebound, the damage here is structural, not just technical.

Strykr Take

This is what happens when tokenomics meet macro panic. Ripple’s unlocks have finally broken the market’s back, and the path of least resistance is still down. Until supply dries up or macro sentiment turns, XRP is a falling knife. Trade it if you must, but keep your stops tight and your risk tighter. This isn’t a dip to buy, it’s a lesson in why supply always wins in the end.