XRP’s On-Chain Pain: Losses Mount as SOPR Turns Negative and Price Flirts With $1 Breakdown

Sometimes the most interesting story is the one everyone’s trying to ignore. While Bitcoin’s drama hogs the headlines, XRP is quietly bleeding out. The token’s SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) just flipped negative, signaling that holders are realizing losses en masse. The price is now hovering dangerously close to the psychological $1 level, and the on-chain data looks like a warning siren for anyone still clinging to the old “utility” narrative. If you want to know what capitulation looks like, this is it.

Here’s the timeline. According to Coinpedia (2026-02-09), XRP’s recent price weakness has coincided with a sharp shift in on-chain behavior. The SOPR metric, which measures whether coins moved on-chain are being sold at a profit or loss, has turned negative for the first time in months. That means more coins are being sold at a loss than at a gain, a classic sign of capitulation. Meanwhile, price action is ugly: XRP is stuck in a tight range just above $1, with every bounce getting sold. The bulls are running out of ammo, and the bears smell blood.

Zooming out, XRP’s predicament is part of a larger story. The token has always been controversial, with die-hard fans touting its “real-world utility” and skeptics dismissing it as a relic of the 2017 ICO era. The rediscovery of a 2013 article praising Ripple (crypto-economy.com, 2026-02-09) has revived the old debate, but the market is voting with its feet. Liquidity on XRPL remains thin, according to CryptoSlate (2026-02-09), and the much-hyped DeFi push has yet to materialize in any meaningful way. In a market that rewards momentum and punishes stagnation, XRP is stuck in limbo.

The technicals are no more encouraging. Every rally is met with aggressive selling, and the volume profile suggests that big holders are quietly heading for the exits. The SOPR turning negative is a canary in the coal mine: it means that even the faithful are giving up hope. Historically, such periods have led to sharp flushes before any real bottom is found. The risk is that a break below $1 triggers a cascade of stop-losses and margin calls, sending the price into free fall.

Strykr Watch

From a technical perspective, XRP is hanging by a thread. The $1 level is the line in the sand, lose it, and the next support doesn’t show up until $0.85. Resistance is stacked at $1.08, where every rally has failed in recent weeks. The 200-day moving average is rolling over, and RSI is stuck below 40, confirming the bearish momentum. On-chain flows show that short-term holders are capitulating, while long-term whales are sitting on their hands. If XRP can reclaim $1.08 on strong volume, there’s a shot at a relief rally, but the odds aren’t great.

The bear case is brutal. If SOPR stays negative and price breaks $1, expect a fast move to $0.85 or lower. The lack of liquidity on XRPL means that any large sell order could trigger outsized moves. Regulatory risk is always lurking in the background, and the broader altcoin market isn’t exactly providing much of a tailwind. The only thing keeping XRP afloat is inertia, and that’s not a strategy.

But there’s a contrarian bull case, too. Capitulation often marks the end of a downtrend, and if the market is sufficiently washed out, even a modest positive catalyst could spark a face-ripping rally. For brave traders, buying the flush below $1 with a tight stop could pay off. The key is to wait for confirmation, don’t try to catch a falling knife, but don’t be afraid to pounce if the selling exhausts itself.

Strykr Take

XRP is in the danger zone. The SOPR flip is a classic sign of capitulation, and the price action is confirming the pain. This isn’t the time to get cute, respect the levels, manage your risk, and be ready to move fast. If XRP loses $1, step aside and let the dust settle. If it holds, there’s a tradeable bounce. But make no mistake: this is a market for snipers, not bagholders.

datePublished: 2026-02-09 20:15 UTC