
Strykr Analysis
BearishStrykr Pulse 38/100. Bitcoin has lost a key support and momentum is negative. Macro headwinds, tightening liquidity, and technical breakdowns point to further downside. Threat Level 4/5.
If you were hoping for a sleepy start to February in crypto, Bitcoin just reminded everyone why weekends are for risk managers, not brunch. The digital gold standard, which only weeks ago was flirting with the $80,000 mark and making ETF marketers salivate, has now slipped below a key support, with $BTC quoted at $76,601 as of February 1, 2026, 22:45 UTC (source: news.bitcoin.com). The move wasn’t a gentle drift lower. It was a trapdoor moment, the kind that makes perma-bulls check their stop losses twice and perma-bears start drafting victory tweets.
The selloff comes as cross-asset markets wobble under liquidation pressure and geopolitical risk. The headlines are a greatest hits album of trader headaches: tightening liquidity, Treasury issuance draining cash, and a winter storm in the US that even managed to disrupt Bitcoin miners (cointelegraph.com). Add to that the usual on-chain drama—allegations of insider trading, institutional outflows, and the ever-present specter of regulatory crackdown—and you get a market that feels less like a store of value and more like a high-stakes casino.
Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price action has been a masterclass in how quickly sentiment can sour. Newsbtc.com notes that the drop below a key previous low has put the rally on ice, with analysts flagging lower levels ahead. Volatility is back, and it’s not the fun kind. The liquidation map is lighting up, with leveraged longs getting carted out. Stablecoin flows, according to blockonomi.com, suggest this isn’t a full-blown risk-off exodus yet, but the controlled repositioning by institutions is telling. The ARK Invest team, usually the first to reframe any Bitcoin dip as a buying opportunity, is now talking about “wider macro narratives” and “healthy pullbacks.” Translation: the easy money phase is over.
Zooming out, this is the first real test for Bitcoin since the ETF euphoria. The run to $80,000 was built on institutional FOMO, easy liquidity, and a relentless narrative that Bitcoin was finally ready to be the macro alternative (cryptoslate.com). But as soon as the macro backdrop turned, with Treasury settlements draining $64.3 billion from markets (seekingalpha.com), the cracks started to show. The correlation with risk assets is back in focus. When stocks wobble, Bitcoin doesn’t moon. It just wobbles harder.
The mining disruption from the US winter storm (cointelegraph.com) is a sideshow, but it’s the kind of thing that gets cited in post-mortems. The real story is the shift in flows. Stablecoin dominance is ticking up, but not in a panic. This is controlled selling, not capitulation. Yet. If Bitcoin can’t reclaim $78,000 soon, the technical picture gets ugly fast. The market is watching for a flush to $72,000, with some eyeing the $68,000 level as the line in the sand for the bull market narrative.
Strykr Watch
Technically, Bitcoin is skating on thin ice. The break below $78,000 was the first domino. The next major support sits at $74,500, with $72,000 as the real test. Resistance is now stacked at $78,000 and $80,000. The RSI is trending lower, momentum is negative, and the liquidation map shows clusters of stops just below $74,000. If those trigger, expect a fast move lower. Moving averages are rolling over on the 4-hour and daily charts. This is not a dip to blindly buy. Wait for evidence of absorption and a reclaim of lost levels.
The on-chain data isn’t offering much comfort. Exchange inflows are up, miner balances are down, and the derivatives market is skewed to the downside. The only bright spot is that funding rates have normalized, suggesting the worst of the forced liquidations may be behind us. But make no mistake, this is a market in need of a catalyst. Until then, the path of least resistance is lower.
Risk is everywhere. The macro backdrop is hostile, with Treasury issuance sapping liquidity and geopolitical risk keeping everyone jumpy. If stocks roll over, Bitcoin will not be immune. Regulatory headlines are a wild card, and the ongoing drama around insider trading allegations (cryptopolitan.com) is a distraction the market doesn’t need. If $74,500 fails, the next stop is $72,000, and then it’s a quick trip to $68,000. At that point, the bull market narrative is on life support.
But with risk comes opportunity. If Bitcoin can hold above $74,500 and reclaim $78,000, there’s a case for a relief rally back to $80,000 and beyond. The market is oversold on short timeframes, and any sign of institutional buying could spark a sharp bounce. For traders, the setup is clear: wait for confirmation, keep stops tight, and don’t try to catch a falling knife. The real opportunity will come when the market flushes out the weak hands and shows signs of real accumulation.
Strykr Take
This is not the time for heroics. Bitcoin has lost a key support, and the technicals are ugly. The macro backdrop is a headwind, not a tailwind. But panic is not a strategy. Wait for the flush, watch the Strykr Watch, and be ready to act when the market shows its hand. The bull market isn’t dead, but it’s in the ICU. Trade accordingly.
Sources (5)
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