Bitcoin Slides Below $78,000 as Bulls Vanish and Macro Shocks Hit Crypto Sentiment

If you blinked, you missed the moment Bitcoin bulls went silent. Over the weekend, as the rest of the world was busy doomscrolling through yet another round of macro headlines, Bitcoin quietly slipped below the psychologically loaded $78,000 mark. That’s not just a round number, it’s a nine-month low, and the kind of price action that makes even the most diamond-handed HODLers check their pulse. The sell-off wasn’t a single, dramatic flush. It was a slow, grinding bleed, as thin weekend liquidity met a wall of profit-taking and a sudden absence of the usual permabulls. Jim Cramer, never one to miss a chance to troll, openly wondered where the “laser eyes” crowd had gone. The answer: probably licking their wounds, or at least rebalancing their risk models after the latest macro curveball.

The proximate cause? President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh, a name that sends shivers down the spine of anyone who remembers the 2010s, is widely viewed as more hawkish than Powell. The market, which had been pricing in a soft-landing narrative and maybe even a rate cut fantasy, suddenly found itself staring down the barrel of a potentially tighter Fed. Bitcoin, which had been holding up surprisingly well despite a barrage of regulatory uncertainty, finally cracked. The move below $78,000 triggered a cascade of liquidations, with funding rates flipping negative and spot volumes evaporating into the Sunday night ether. According to Cointelegraph, MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor signaled a buy after Bitcoin briefly dipped below his firm’s cost basis, but the market barely flinched. The old “buy the dip” playbook is looking a little dog-eared.

It’s not just Bitcoin feeling the heat. The entire digital asset complex is wobbling. Ethereum is under structural stress reminiscent of the FTX collapse, with liquidations and negative funding rates piling up. XRP is flirting with the $1 mark after months of gains evaporated in a matter of days. The mood is risk-off across the board, and the usual weekend warriors are nowhere to be found. Even the “buy-the-dip” crowd seems to be waiting for someone else to make the first move. The narrative has shifted from “when moon” to “how much lower.”

Context is everything. Bitcoin’s latest swoon comes after a period of remarkable resilience. For most of 2025, Bitcoin managed to shrug off regulatory headwinds, ETF drama, and even the odd exchange hack. The narrative was simple: macro uncertainty equals digital gold. But that logic only holds as long as the macro shocks are inflationary. A hawkish Fed, rising Treasury yields, and tightening liquidity are a different beast. Suddenly, Bitcoin looks less like a safe haven and more like a high-beta risk asset. The correlation with tech stocks, which had been fading, is back with a vengeance. The Nasdaq is flat, but the crypto complex is bleeding. This isn’t about crypto-specific news. It’s about macro, and the algos know it.

The technicals are ugly. The break below $78,000 opens the door to a test of the April lows. There’s some support in the $75,000-$76,000 zone, but it’s thin. If that goes, $70,000 is in play, and the pain trade gets real. On the upside, $80,000 is now stiff resistance. The order book is thin, and the path of least resistance is lower. The funding rate flip tells you everything you need to know about positioning: the longs are getting squeezed, and the shorts are emboldened. The volatility spike is real, but it’s not the kind of volatility that rewards risk-takers. It’s the kind that punishes over-leverage and late longs.

Strykr Watch

The Strykr Watch are brutally clear. $78,000 is now the pivot. A sustained break below opens up the $75,000-$76,000 support zone, but there’s not much conviction there. Below that, the next real line in the sand is $70,000. On the upside, $80,000 is the new resistance, with a wall of sell orders stacked above. The RSI is oversold but not capitulation-level. The 200-day moving average, which has been a reliable buy signal in past cycles, is sitting just below current prices. If Bitcoin can reclaim $80,000 with volume, the bulls might have a shot at flipping the narrative. But right now, the momentum is squarely with the bears.

The derivatives market is flashing red. Funding rates are negative, open interest is down, and the perpetuals curve is in backwardation. This is classic risk-off behavior. The options market is pricing in elevated volatility, but the skew is to the downside. The market is bracing for more pain, not a V-shaped recovery. The on-chain data shows a spike in exchange inflows, suggesting that some whales are cashing out, or at least hedging their exposure. The retail crowd is on the sidelines, and the institutions are in risk management mode.

What could go wrong? Plenty. The biggest risk is a deeper macro shock. If Warsh signals a faster pace of tightening, or if Treasury yields spike further, Bitcoin could see another leg down. The regulatory backdrop is still a wild card. Any hint of a crackdown, or another high-profile enforcement action, could trigger forced selling. The thin liquidity over weekends makes the market vulnerable to outsized moves. If the $75,000 support fails, the next stop is $70,000, and the pain trade accelerates. The other wild card is stablecoin liquidity. If there’s a sudden redemption wave, or if a major stablecoin loses its peg, the entire market could seize up.

There are opportunities, but they require discipline. The contrarian play is to buy into extreme fear, but only with tight stops. A bounce from the $75,000-$76,000 zone could target a retest of $80,000, but it’s a trade, not an investment thesis. The more patient approach is to wait for a clear reclaim of $80,000 with volume and confirmation from the derivatives market. If the funding rates normalize and open interest rebuilds, the bulls might have a shot. For now, the best trade might be to fade the first bounce and look for a lower entry. If you’re playing with leverage, size down and keep your stops tight. The volatility is real, and the market is unforgiving.

Strykr Take

This is not the time for hero trades. The market is in risk-off mode, and the path of least resistance is lower. The best move is to stay nimble, manage your risk, and wait for the dust to settle. If you must trade, do it with discipline and respect the technicals. The macro backdrop has shifted, and the old playbook doesn’t work. When the bulls finally show up, you’ll know. Until then, keep your powder dry and your stops tighter.

datePublished: 2026-02-02 01:01 UTC