Solana’s $100 Balancing Act: As Long-Term Holders Retreat, Is the Next Move Down or Up?

If you want a masterclass in market schizophrenia, look no further than Solana this week. The so-called Ethereum killer is doing a tightrope act at the psychologically loaded $100 level, with a backdrop that would make even the most jaded crypto trader reach for the antacids. Long-term holders are pulling back, the price is under sustained pressure, and the broader crypto market is acting like it just discovered gravity. Yet, for all the hand-wringing, Solana hasn’t collapsed. It’s hovering, almost daring traders to pick a side.

Let’s get the facts straight. Solana’s price has been in a slow-motion car crash since late last year, with the latest leg down exacerbated by a broader risk-off move across digital assets. According to BeinCrypto, the price “gradually dropped” even before the most recent bout of market weakness. Now, with long-term holders quietly heading for the exits, the question isn’t whether Solana is weak, it’s whether the floor is about to give way or if this is just another fake-out before a face-melting reversal.

The numbers are stark. Solana is currently hovering near $100, a level that’s less a technical support and more a psychological battleground. The last time Solana broke below $100 with conviction, it triggered a cascade of liquidations and a sharp, reflexive bounce. This time, the market feels different. The exodus of long-term holders, as highlighted by on-chain data, is a classic late-stage capitulation signal. But here’s the twist: open interest remains stubbornly high, and funding rates haven’t cratered. This is not your garden-variety panic. There’s still leverage in the system, and that means the next move could be violent.

Context is everything. Solana’s decline is happening against a backdrop of carnage in the broader altcoin space. Bitcoin has been flirting with multi-month lows, dragging everything else down with it. Ethereum is facing its own existential crisis, with Vitalik himself admitting that Layer 2s “no longer make sense.” The AI panic that’s hammering equities is also bleeding into crypto risk assets, as traders de-risk across the board. In this environment, Solana’s resilience at $100 is both impressive and suspect. Is this the last stand of the bulls, or just a dead cat refusing to bounce?

Historically, Solana has been a volatility monster. When it moves, it moves fast. The last time we saw this kind of positioning, long-term holders selling into weakness, leverage still present, and price hovering at a key round number, the result was a 20% whipsaw in both directions before any real trend emerged. The risk here is that traders are underestimating just how much leverage is still lurking beneath the surface. If $100 breaks, the next stop could be a lot lower, with forced liquidations accelerating the move. On the other hand, if the market absorbs this selling and rips higher, the pain trade will be to the upside as shorts scramble to cover.

The macro backdrop isn’t helping. The new Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, has markets on edge, and the risk-off mood is palpable. Equities are selling off, commodities are flatlining, and crypto is caught in the crossfire. Solana, with its high beta and speculative fervor, is a natural casualty. Yet, the lack of a decisive breakdown at $100 suggests that there are still buyers willing to step in. Maybe they’re fools. Maybe they’re the smart money. Either way, the next move is likely to be explosive.

Strykr Watch

From a technical perspective, the $100 level is everything. Solana’s 200-day moving average is hovering just below, adding another layer of complexity. RSI is sitting in the mid-30s, not quite oversold but definitely not healthy. The last three attempts to break below $100 have been met with sharp, short-lived bounces. Volume is elevated but not climactic, suggesting that the real capitulation may still be ahead.

Watch the open interest. If it starts to unwind aggressively on a break of $100, expect a quick move to the mid-$80s. Conversely, a reclaim of $110 with volume could trigger a short squeeze back to $120 in a hurry. The key is to watch for confirmation, don’t try to be a hero catching the knife, but don’t sleep on the reversal if the market starts to rip.

The risk is that the market gets trapped in a chop zone, with neither bulls nor bears able to seize control. In that scenario, expect a slow grind lower, punctuated by occasional short squeezes that punish late sellers. The best trades will come from waiting for the extremes, either a flush below $100 or a breakout above $110 with conviction.

The bear case is obvious. If long-term holders are giving up, who’s left to buy? The risk is that the selling accelerates, with forced liquidations driving the price lower in a hurry. The bull case is more subtle. If the market can absorb this selling and hold $100, it sets up for a classic pain trade higher as shorts get squeezed and sidelined bulls chase the move.

Opportunities abound for traders willing to be patient. A break and close below $100 is a clean short setup, with a stop above $105 and a target in the mid-$80s. On the long side, a reclaim of $110 with volume is a green light to chase, targeting $120 and beyond. The key is to avoid the chop in between and wait for the market to tip its hand.

Strykr Take

Solana is at a crossroads. The market is daring traders to pick a side, and the next move will be decisive. The setup is classic: leverage, capitulation, and a key psychological level. The risk is real, but so is the opportunity. This is not the time to get cute. Wait for confirmation, respect your stops, and be ready to move when the market does. The pain trade is higher, but don’t underestimate the downside if $100 gives way. Welcome to the Solana casino. Place your bets.

datePublished: 2026-02-03 23:31 UTC

Sources: BeinCrypto, Cointelegraph, Crypto-Economy, Coindesk