Solana’s Whiplash Week: Can Record Onchain Activity Rescue the $100 Level?

If you’re looking for a case study in crypto’s ability to swing from despair to euphoria and back before lunch, Solana’s price action this week is your answer. The network’s token, SOL, crashed below the psychologically loaded $100 mark, only to stage a whiplash rebound that left both bulls and bears questioning their life choices. Standard Chartered, never one to shy away from a moonshot, is now touting a $2,000 price target by 2030. Meanwhile, Wall Street is split between calling for a retest of $150 and warning that the next leg could be straight through the floor.

Let’s get granular. On February 3, as Bitcoin’s leverage-fueled cascade dragged the entire crypto complex lower, Solana was the poster child for risk-off pain. Benzinga reported Standard Chartered’s downgrade of its near-term outlook for SOL, even as the bank doubled down on its long-term moon math. The token sliced through $100, triggering a wave of liquidations and stop-losses. But then, as if on cue, the market remembered that onchain activity is hitting all-time highs. Invezz notes that traders are now watching for a recovery toward $150, with record user engagement and DeFi volumes providing a bullish counterweight to the macro gloom.

Context is everything. Solana has been here before, multiple times. The network’s history is a rollercoaster of outages, upgrades, and speculative manias. But this time, the backdrop is different. The broader crypto market is in the throes of a risk-off rotation, with capital flowing out of altcoins and into Bitcoin and, bizarrely, precious metals. Mike Cagney told CryptoBriefing that Bitcoin’s stability is now rivaling gold and silver, and capital is rotating accordingly. Solana, with its reputation for speed and DeFi innovation, is caught in the crossfire. The narrative battle is intense: is this just another shakeout, or the start of a deeper structural decline?

The market’s response has been anything but subtle. The selloff below $100 was violent, with volumes spiking as forced sellers hit the bid. But the bounce was equally ferocious, as traders with iron stomachs stepped in to buy what they see as a generational discount. Onchain metrics are the wild card. Solana’s daily active users, DeFi TVL, and transaction counts are all at or near record highs. The question is whether fundamentals can trump macro headwinds and technical breakdowns. Wall Street is hedging its bets: some desks are calling for a swift recovery to $150, while others are eyeing a retest of the $80s if risk-off flows persist.

Strykr Watch

From a technical perspective, Solana is on a knife’s edge. The $100 level is both a psychological and structural support. The recent flush took SOL well below that mark, but the rebound has put $100 back in play as a battleground. RSI readings are deeply oversold, but momentum remains negative. Moving averages are starting to roll over, and options markets are pricing in elevated volatility for the next two weeks. The next resistance is clearly defined at $150, with support in the mid-$80s. For traders, this is a textbook volatility regime: expect whipsaws, fakeouts, and the occasional face-ripping rally.

The risks are obvious and numerous. First, another leg down in Bitcoin could drag Solana through $100 again, triggering a fresh round of liquidations. Second, if onchain activity fails to translate into price stability, the narrative could flip from "growth story" to "broken story" in a heartbeat. Third, the macro environment is a minefield. With the Fed signaling a steeper yield curve and risk-off sentiment dominating, altcoins are swimming upstream. Finally, network stability is always a lurking risk, Solana’s history of outages is never far from traders’ minds.

But there’s a bull case, and it’s not just hopium. For traders who can stomach the volatility, Solana’s fundamentals are hard to ignore. Record DeFi activity, surging user numbers, and a pipeline of new projects make it a magnet for speculative capital, when the mood shifts. If SOL can reclaim and hold $100, the path to $150 is wide open. Options markets offer asymmetric ways to play the bounce, and for those with a longer time horizon, the risk-reward is starting to look attractive. Just don’t expect a smooth ride.

Strykr Take

Solana is the ultimate volatility play right now. The fundamentals are strong, but the macro headwinds are gale force. For traders, this is a market to trade, not to invest. Use tight stops, respect the technicals, and don’t get married to your position. If SOL can hold $100, the upside is real. But if it loses that level again, the next stop is the mid-$80s. Strykr Pulse 52/100. Threat Level 3/5.